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Saturday, June 22, 2019

Hong Fok

Chart wise, looks pretty interesting!
It has managed to bounce-off from the low of 77 cents and rises higher to hit 85.5 cents.
Will we be seeing a follow-through action !


Short term wise, I think it may likely re-attempt 85.5 cents.
Crossing over with ease + good volume that may drive the price higher towards 90 cents then 95 cents with extension to 1.00.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Pls dyodd.

1st Quarter 2019 result - The Group posted a revenue of approximately $27.2 million for this period as compared to $17.7 million in the previous corresponding period. The increase was mainly due to the recognition of revenue from the sales of its development properties in Singapore and higher rental income from its investment properties including YOTEL Singapore Orchard Road (“YOTEL”).

Hence, the Group posted a profit of approximately $5.1 million as compared to $0.6 million in the previous corresponding period. The Group’s profit attributable to Owners of the Company was approximately $5.5 million as compared to $1.5 million in the previous corresponding period.

The right-of-use asset was mainly related to lease of the office units occupied by the Group in Hong Kong. The increase in other investments was mainly due to purchase of shares and bonds and valuation of its other investments at fair value as at 31 March 2019. The non-current asset held for sale in 2018 was disposed off in February 2019. The lease liabilities as at 31 March 2019 were due to the adoption of SFRS(I) 16 with effect from 1 January 2019.


The Group increased its non-current loans and borrowings due to drawdown of its secured loans to redeem its $120 million 4.75% unsecured fixed rate notes on its due date, 22 March 2019 and for its purchase of other investments.

Subsequently, on 28 March 2019, the Company issued $100 million 4.2% unsecured fixed rate notes from its $600 million Multicurrency Debt Issuance Programme to partially repay these secured loans. The decrease in loans and borrowings under current liabilities was mainly due to the redemption of its $120 million unsecured fixed rate notes on its due date. The decrease in trade and other payables was mainly due to the payments of accrued development costs, employee benefit expenses and finance expense. The increase in current tax liabilities was mainly due to provision of tax for this period.


The total debts to equity ratios is pretty healthy at 0.25 .

The current price of 84 cents is trading at P/B of 0.304x.
NAV is 2.76.

Management has been buying back share from 79,79.5 to 82.5 cents .

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/_FORM1_CSE_Final.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=562653

https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/_FORM1_CSE_Final.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=562653



Friday, June 21, 2019

QAF

Yesterday the selling down with a wide Bearish bar coupled with high volume + price was down 4.5 cents to close at 70 cents looks super bearish!

The chart is damaged and price may likely continue to go further down.

Short term wise, I think it may go down to retest 68 level.
Breaking down of 68 cents with high volume that may see further selling down pressure and press the share price further down towards 60 cents level.


Current PE I think is very high at around 50x.
NAV 89 cents.
I am doubtful they can maintain the dividend of 5 cents looking at their FCF being generated.

Just had a looked on their FY 2018 cash flow statements.
FCF is negative for FY2017 & FY2018.
seem a red flag to me!


FCF for FY2017 , Net Cash from Ops is $61916 less Capex $60660, FCF = $1256. Dividend payout of $19206  How to support this kind of dividend payout..

FCF for FY2018 is worst . Net Cah from Ops $20932 less Capex $74384 , FCF -$53452.
Dividend payout of $23441.  Looks scarely..

Had also looked into their recent 1st Quarter 2019 financial result.
FCF looks slightly improve but is still far from enough to cover the dividend payout of $23441.
I think dividend is not sustainable.




Not a call to buy or sell.

Pls dyodd.



Bank counter UOB,dbs & ocbc

I think is always good to secure the profit!
Market has been rising due to news like trade saga and future interest rate cut .


US indexes has been approaching the dangerous zone. I think is good to be extra cautious!
We have a 10 good years of bull market and is about time for the indexes to be corrected .

The 3 bank counters has managed to rebound from the oversold territory and I think is always a good to lock in profit.


I think not much room to go higher unless trigger by some positive news.

UOb latest chart
DBs latest chart
Ocbc latest chart


  • 19th June 2019

Chart wise, the three bank counter are showing a reversal patterns as all 3 counters are having quite similar chart patterns.


UOb chart patterns standout amongst the other two counters and close slightly near the overhead resistance at 26.15.
TA wise,looks Bullish !
It is usually quite normal for price not to be able to Pierce through the resistance . With this bullish momentum, I think it may continue to rise further!


Dbs has a very nice Gap up yesterday and close slightly higher at 25.43. It has managed to take out the recent high of 25.40 , looks positive!
Short term wise, I think it may rise higher to test 26.00 then 26.50 - 26.95.
Ocbc also experience a nice Gap up yesterday and close well at 11.18, looks positive!
If it is able to cross over 11.20 smoothly plus good volume then high chance it may rise higher to retest 11.50 again!

Not a call to buy or sell.

Pls dyodd.


Thursday, June 20, 2019

Daily Leverage Certificates ( DLCs)


Daily Leverage Certificates ( DLCs)

What is Daily Leverage Certificates (DLCs)?
It is actually a financial instruments that is designed to multiply the Daily Performance of an Underlying Assets with a leveraging effect of example 3x , 5x or 7x DLC .

If the underlying asset moves by 1% from its closing price of the previous trading day, the value of a 3x DLC will move by 3%, and that of a 7x DLC will move by 7%.

Example : If the underlying asset moves goes up by 1% and you have chosen 3x Long DLC would have gone up by 3%. Let say you have bought using 3x Long DLC with $3000 today and the underlying asset price is 100. Tomorrow the price goes up to 101( up by 1%) , your 3x Long DLC value would be increasing to $3090( up by 3%) before the broker commission/other fees etc .

Theoretically you would have generated a gain of $90 excludes costs and fees.

On the other hands, if the underlying assets price drops by 1%, your 3x Long DLC investment value would also drop to $2910( down by 3%) before costs and fees. You have generated a loss of $90.

DLC comes in Long and Short versions. While Long DLC provides leveraged return versus the Underlying Asset, Short DLC provides a positive (and leveraged) return when the Underlying Asset declines.

All the current single stock DLCs have a leverage of 5, while index DLCs come in 3 choices of 3, 5, and 7 times leverage.

Is DLCs suitable for me?
DLCs are designed for active investors or traders who have financial knowledge and experience in trading leverage products and willing to take a higher risk. It is designed for sophisticated investors who are looking for the potential to make enhanced returns from the daily benchmark indices or stock counters.

To be eligible or qualified as a DLCs investors or traders, he or she will need to be SIP qualified before they can start to trade on DLCs product.
Under MAS’ guidelines to enhance safeguards to retail investors, brokers must assess if investors have the relevant knowledge and experience before they can invest in “Specified Investment Products”. SIPs are products that have structures, features and risks that may be more complex and include DLCs.

Investors or traders need to complete a customer account review with their respective broker. The criteria used to qualify the investor in the customer account review consist of Educational Qualifications, Work Experience and Investment Experience. Investors will need to satisfy one of the 3 criteria above to qualify. 

DLCs is a simple financial instrument designed for short-term traders . The holding period of an average trade generally can range from a day to a couple of weeks. If you only want to invest in the most stable stocks and get the regular dividend yield, then DLCs is not really suitable for you. But if you have a short-term view on a stock/index and would like to get a convenient leverage to enlarge the potential return, then you may consider trading a DLCs.
What should I know before I start trading DLCs
DLCs are listed on SGX like a stock, and they are also traded like a stock. If you have a stock broker account that can trade say any single stock share, you can use the same broker account to trade DLCs too. Unlike some other leveraged investment products, there is no margin requirement for DLCs.

The list of DLCs counters are listed on this website.
Below is a snap-shot of the list of DLCs counters and their bid and asking price.

 Costs & Fees
Investors trading in and out of a DLCs in the same trading day will need to pay a brokerage commission and SGX trading fee to their broker, and the spread on the bid & ask prices (the difference between the offer price paid when buying the DLCs and the bid price received when selling the DLCs).

If traders/investors wishes to hold overnight then other charges like Management fees , Gap Premium(is a hedging cost that protects the product from extreme market movements overnight. Without the gap premium, if the underlying asset were to open more than 20% against the intended direction of a 5x DLC, the loss in the value of the DLC could be more than 100% (loss of 5 times 20%) + Funding costs and Rebalancing costs.


Risks of dealing with DLCs
Counter party risk - These products are issued by a third-party and may be guaranteed by a guarantor. Any failure of the issuer or guarantor to perform obligations when due, may result in the loss of all or part of an investment. If the issuer is not incorporated in Singapore, any insolvency proceedings in respect of the issuer will be subject to foreign insolvency laws and procedures.

Market price of the DLC may be affected by many factors -
Investors should note that the market price of the DLC may be affected by different factors, including but not limited to the level, volatility and liquidity of the underlying asset, and its related futures contracts, the currency exchange rates and the credit worthiness of the issue

Investor may lose his entire investment -
If the underlying asset falls to levels such that the cash settlement amount is calculated to be less than or equal to zero, the investor will lose his entire investment. In the event the value of a DLC reaches zero /becomes worthless, the issuer may request that the DLC be suspended and subsequently apply for them to be de-listed.

To summarize the benefits of using DLCs:

Easy to understand – returns can be boosted by a fixed daily leverage; trades like a normal single stock.

Can do both Long or Short DLCs trade to take advantage of the price direction.

Limited losses – losses are limited to the initial capital invested.

Compounded method - the performances each day are locked in and subsequent returns are based on what was achieved the day before.

The Air Bag Mechanism - Air Bag mechanism is designed to slow down the rate of loss on the index during extreme market conditions. The reset takes place over a period of 30mins. This is designed to reduce the impact of any subsequent fall.

To find out more about this DLCs products you may visit the below websites:
Disclaimers :
The above information provided is solely for reading and understanding of DLCs products. And at No instance to be regarded as a investment advice.


Wednesday, June 19, 2019

UOb,Dbs and Ocbc

Chart wise, the three bank counter are showing a reversal patterns as all 3 counters are having quite similar chart patterns.


UOb chart patterns standout amongst the other two counters and close slightly near the overhead resistance at 26.15.
TA wise,looks Bullish !
It is usually quite normal for price not to be able to Pierce through the resistance . With this bullish momentum, I think it may continue to rise further!


Dbs has a very nice Gap up yesterday and close slightly higher at 25.43. It has managed to take out the recent high of 25.40 , looks positive!
Short term wise, I think it may rise higher to test 26.00 then 26.50 - 26.95.
Ocbc also experience a nice Gap up yesterday and close well at 11.18, looks positive!
If it is able to cross over 11.20 smoothly plus good volume then high chance it may rise higher to retest 11.50 again!

Not a call to buy or sell.

Pls dyodd.



Tuesday, June 18, 2019

DBS

Market could be heading higher due to anticipation of the trade saga meeting and may be a deal.
Nothing is certained at this moment! I think it is purely speculation!


Dow jump overnight more than 350 points.
I guess today bank counter may head higher !

Just now saw DBS opening price of 26.04. Is it sustainable! I doubt so!

Yesterday closing price was 24.80.

It may be a bull trap !

Let's see!

Not a call to buy or sell.

Pls dyodd.