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Wednesday, October 31, 2018


3rd quarter 2018 net profit grew 12% to $1.25b. Return of equity higher at 12.6%.

9M18 Group Performance, Net profit increased 18% YOY to $3.57b.

A beautiful set of result!
Not sure how will market reacts to the latest result.

One word! Nice and beautiful follow-through moment as reflected on the chart today with a second white soldiers.

Yesterday, we have witnessed the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern that is more or less signalling the end of the downtrend reversal indication.

Today market has provided us with the answer and close well at $10.74 , Up 26 cents with convincingly High volume. This is rather bullish!

Short term wise, I think it may likely continue to head higher to re-visit $11.00 then $11.23 level.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Pls dyodd.

Do you happen to notice the same patterns has been repeating itself.
Is good to be extra cautious!

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited provides financial services in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Greater China, other parts of the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company's Global Consumer/Private Banking segment provides a range of products and services to individuals, including checking accounts, and savings and fixed deposits; housing and other personal loans; credit cards; wealth management products consisting of unit trusts, bancassurance products, and structured deposits; and brokerage services. This segment also offers investment advice and portfolio management, estate and trust planning, and wealth structuring services for high net worth individuals. Its Global Corporate/Investment Banking segment provides project financing, overdrafts, trade financing, and deposit accounts; fee-based services, such as cash management and custodian services; and investment banking services, including financing solutions, syndicated loans and advisory services, corporate finance services for initial public offerings, secondary fund-raising, and takeovers and mergers, as well as customized and structured equity-linked financing services. It serves corporates, public sector, and small and medium enterprises. The company's Global Treasury and Markets segment is involved in the foreign exchange activities, money market operations, and fixed income and derivatives trading, as well as provision of structured treasury products and financial solutions. Its OCBC Wing Hang segment offers commercial banking, consumer financing, share brokerage, and insurance services. The company’s Insurance segment provides fund management services, and life and general insurance products. Its Others segment is involved in property and investment holding activities. As of May 7, 2018, the company operated a network of 590 branches and representative offices in 18 countries and regions. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Singapore.

Sunday, October 28, 2018

Raffles Medical

  • 3rd quarter result .

The Group’s revenue grew 1.2% from S$119.6 million in Q3 2017 to S$121.0 million in Q3 2018. Healthcare Services division recorded a revenue increase of 8.0% while the revenue of Hospital Services division decreased by 3.8%. The increase in revenue from Healthcare Services division was contributed by the addition of new corporate clients and the new contract to provide Air Borders screening services.

The decrease in revenue from the Hospital Services division in Q3 2018 was due in part to the refurbishment of the current inpatient facilities.

 The Group’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 8.5% from S$22.1 million in Q3 2017 to S$23.9 million for Q3 2018. The net profit after tax attributable to owners of the Company increased marginally to S$16.4 million in Q3 2018. The continued strong operating cashflows generated from the Group’s business operations contributed to a healthy cash position of S$102.6 million. 

This was after accounting for the distribution of interim dividend of S$9.0 million and payment of S$24.8 million for investment properties under development.

Sembcorp Marine

Looks rather bearish with a wide bearish bar. Broken down the previous low of $1.63. Coupled with high volume, looks like fund has exited ..

 Short term wise, I think likely to retest 1.55 then 1.50 with extension to $1.30 level.

 NAV of $1.12, Total debts/equity is 172%.

 Not a call to buy or sell.

 Pls dyodd.

 Sembcorp Marine Ltd, an investment holding company, provides offshore and marine engineering solutions worldwide. The company engages in the turnkey design, engineering, procurement, construction, and commissioning of offshore newbuilding and conversions, FSOs, FPSOs, FDPSOs, FPUs, MOPUs, gas terminals, FLNGs, FSRUs, jack-ups, semi-submersibles, drill ships, SSP solutions, TLPs, and SPARs. It also engages in the repair, refurbishment, retrofitting, life-extension, upgrading, and conversion of vessels, marine and offshore structures, LNG and LPG gas carriers, cruise ships, ferries, mega-yachts, floating production vessels, MODUs, tankers, containers, and cargo ships, as well as offers jumboization and dejumboization solutions. In addition, the company offers afloat and emergency repair, underwater cleaning and repair, main engine maintenance and repair, steel and pipe work, electrical and instrumentation repair, mechanical and motor rewind repair, tank cleaning, sludge and oily waste disposal, staging work, hydro jetting and hydro/vacuum blasting, riding crew and voyage repair, specialized workshop repair and reconditioning, vessel towage and port clearance arrangement, specialists service and navigation, automation, safety, and fire protection services. Further, it offers offshore platform solutions, such as integrated process; production, riser, and drilling; wellhead, power generation, manifold, and accommodation platforms; and wind-farm substations, as well as topside modules fabrication, installation, and integration. Additionally, it designs and builds sophisticated, specialized, gas value chain, ferry, RoPax, cruise, renewable energy and offshore support, naval support and security, and research and scientific survey vessels. The company was formerly known as Jurong Shipyard Ltd and changed its name to Sembcorp Marine Ltd in 2000. The company was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Singapore. Sembcorp Marine Ltd. is a subsidiary of Sembcorp Industries Ltd.

Saturday, October 27, 2018

DBS - Please Mind The GAP

From TA point of view, it is rather Bearish!
We can observe so many Gap down from $30 to $24 region.With each Gap down, it further weaken the downward pressure.

Currently, it is trading at $23.10, NAV of $17.78, Price per book value is 1.3x which is still trading at premium level as ideally, we would prefer price to trade slightly above the NAV value of $17.78 level.

Dividend of $1.20 which might be the reason why price has started to rise from $25 region to a high of $30. It seems like it is running out of momentum and is on the downwards spiral movement.

From TA wise, is it a good time to go Long? The answer is NO.
If it can't hold up well above $23, it may likely go down to test $22.40 then $21 with extension to $20.23 level.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

Trade/invest base on your own decision.

DBS Group Holdings Ltd, an investment holding company, provides commercial banking and financial services in Singapore, Hong Kong, rest of Greater China, South and Southeast Asia, and internationally. It operates through Consumer Banking/Wealth Management, Institutional Banking, Treasury Markets, and Others segments. The Consumer Banking/Wealth Management segment offers banking and related financial services, including current and savings accounts, fixed deposits, loans and home finance, cards, payments, investment, and insurance products for individual customers. The Institutional Banking segment provides financial services and products for bank and non-bank financial institutions, government-linked companies, large corporates, and small and medium sized businesses. Its products and services comprise short-term working capital financing and specialized lending; cash management, trade finance, and securities and fiduciary services; treasury and markets products; and corporate finance and advisory banking, as well as capital markets solutions. The Treasury Markets segment is involved in structuring, market-making, and trading in a range of treasury products. The Others segment offers stock broking and Islamic banking services. The company operates approximately 280 branches across 17 markets. DBS Group Holdings Ltd was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Singapore.

Thursday, October 25, 2018


The price kept falling from $1.41 to a low of 75 cents today before Bull come in to take control of this situation and close 2.5 cents higher at 81 cents. Coupled with high volume, this is rather bullish!

Short term wise, likely to move up to retest 86 cents then 90 cents with extension to 93 cents.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Pls dyodd.

Hi-P International Limited operates as an integrated contract manufacturer serving the telecommunications, consumer electronics, computing and peripherals, lifestyle, and medical and industrial devices industries. The company operates through three segments: Precision Plastic Injection Molding; Mold Design and Fabrication; and Provision of Sub-Product Assembly and Full-Product Assembly Services. It manufactures and sells molds and special tools, related housing appliance plastic components and equipment, and water treatment equipment; plastic components and plastic product modules; mold base and components; electric components and electronic communication equipment; in-mold decoration lenses; precision stamped metal components and precision tools; and metal and non-metal stampings, as well as provides spray painting, engineering support, maintenance, and technology consultation services. In addition, the company engages in the manufacture, wholesale, import and export, and sale of electronic telecommunication devices, housing appliances, automated equipment, and related components. Further, it manufactures and sells trays, mobile phones, telecommunication products, digital cameras and related electronic products, and electric toothbrushes; assembles coffee machines and parts, as well as provides related maintenance and after-sales services; and offers investment and management consulting services. Additionally, the company engages in the assembly and provision of ancillary value-added services, primarily surface finishing services. It has operations primarily in the People's Republic of China, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Europe, the United States, the rest of Americas, and internationally. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Singapore.

Genting Sing

Genting after hitting the high of $1.41 it has since correctly sharply and went down to touch 87 cents today before bargain hunter coming in to scoop up the share.

The closing at 89 cents is still far cry from its high of $1.41.
A drop of 37% which is considered quite drastic and extremely oversold as the World economy is still growing.

Yearly dividend of 3.5 cents.
Yield is 3.93% , looks attractive to me!
The fair value is about $1.23, therefore, current price is undervalue and present a golden opportunity to own the share of this blue chips company.

I have added a bit today at 88 cents. The yield is quite good and I couldn't resist not to take the courage to buy.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Pls dyodd.

Genting Sing - these are my thoughts and findings on Genting Singapore Plc.  Genting Singapore derive it's revenue mainly from the operation of Resorts World Sentosa, a large integrated lesiure and hospitality resort located on Sentosa island of Singapore. It features six uniquely themed hotels, a casino, one of the world's largest aquarium S.E.A. Aquarium, Southeast Asia’s only aquatic park integrated with marine life - Adventure Cove Waterpark, Southeast Asia’s first and only Universal Studios theme park – Universal Studios Singapore, Singapore’s largest destination spa – ESPA, a wide selection of indoor and outdoor MICE venues, and a variety of dining, retail and entertainment options. Genting Singapore has went through a series of capital raising through debts and equity to fund the building of Resorts World Sentosa. This was a very large project undertaken by Genting Singapore years back which ran into billions of Singapore dollars in order to achieve what we see now as the completed Resorts World Sentosa. It is with this backdrop that I will discuss the performance of Genting Singapore after having spent so much capital into this huge project. Resorts World Sentosa had it's grand opening in 2012. Thus, it has been officially opened for the past about 6 years. I shall look at Genting Singapore's performance from 2012 to 2017 over the span of 5 years after the grand opening of Resorts World Sentosa, where it's derives almost all it's revenues from this huge project.quote :
jeremyowtaip)   First, we look at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenues for Genting Sing. Over the past 5 years, it's revenues have not grown but instead decreased by about 18.8%. I was surprised why it's revenues did not grow but instead decreased. I took a look at the breakdown of it's revenues of which the majority of revenues came from it's gaming revenue (casino operations) while the other second major revenue stream came from it's non-gaming revenue (other non-casino operations). It's gaming revenue is around close to three times it's non-gaming revenue. We can see that the total revenue of Genting Sing really depends on their revenue derived from casino operations. Over the past 5 years, the gaming revenue has decreased while non-gaming revenue has increased to offset some of the decrease in gaming revenue. But due to the majority of revenue are derived from gaming revenue, the total revenue thus decreased over the past 5 years. We see that the revenue of the casino has decreased over the past 5 years. It is worth investigating further why was there a fall in revenue of casino operations over the past 5 years?  Next, we look at the CAGR in operating profits. Operating profits have grown at a CAGR of 0.83% over the past 5 years. Despite a fall in revenues over the past 5 years, Genting Sing has still managed to grow it's operating profits at a meager rate. I see that they have managed to reduce their administrative expenses and also selling and distribution expenses over the past 5 years despite a fall in revenues to protect their operating profits from suffering a similar drop. However, a CAGR of 0.83% is still like not much growth at all! There are so many much better investment ideas out there which definitely produces much higher CAGR in their operating profits even over a short period of 5 years! Next, we look at the CAGR of net profit attributable to shareholders of company. This has grown at a CAGR of 0.46% over the past 5 years. This again confirms that the growth in profitability over the past 5 years was not great. Next, we look at the CAGR of diluted earnings per share (EPS) attributable to shareholders of company over the past 5 years. The diluted EPS has grown at CAGR of 0.76% over the past 5 years. Again, this is another confirmation that the growth in profitability over the past 5 years was not great. I looked at the individual years from 2012 to 2017 to see how the individual year's profitability has changed. The profitability has decreased and then increased again in 2017. The drop in profitability reflected in it's operating profit and net profit attributable to shareholders of company can be quite significant for example in 2015. Therefore, I reach a conclusion that for a shareholder of this company, one has to be prepared to face wild swings in the profitability of this company as the swings can be quite significant in any year. Of course, if an investor can time his entry to buy the shares at lower prices when the profitability has dropped to a low point in preparation for any potential significant recovery in profitability in subsequent year, this investment could be a good candidate to speculate on it's swing in profitabilities. As such, due to the low growth in profitability over the past 5 years, the various returns on assets, returns on equity and returns on invested capital were consistently at low single digits suggesting Genting Sing is a low return investment. Next, we look at how some of their balance sheet metrics have changed over the past 5 years. I tabulated the various metrics as follows for 2012 vs 2017: Current ratio = 4.29 (2012) vs 4.78 (2017) Quick ratio = 3.59 (2012) vs 4.58 (2017) Debt to equity ratio = 0.3 (2012) vs 0.16 (2017) Ordinary shareholder equity CAGR over 5 years = 2.34% Genting Sing's balance sheet has been very strong over the past 5 years. It did a series of capital raising through borrowings and equity over the past decade to fund the building of Resorts World Sentosa. However, the various balance sheet metrics reflected that Genting Sing did not have any problems with over-leveraging or liquidity issues over the past 5 years. Genting Sing grew ordinary shareholder equity at CAGR of 2.34% over the past 5 years thus making their shareholders wealthier in their investment in Genting Sing.

However, at a CAGR of 2.34%, it pales in comparison with many other companies out there which can grow their ordinary shareholder equity at much higher growth rates making their shareholders wealthier even faster. Next, we look at the growth in cashflows. Genting Sing grew their operating cashflows at a CAGR of 3.92% over the past 5 years. It grew it's free cashflows at a CAGR of 25.4%. I noticed that their capital expenditures have reduced significantly over the past 5 years in which the capital expenditures to purchase property and equipment has reduced sharply. Perhaps they have already completed most of their massive capital expenditures when they built the Resorts World Sentosa and for the first few years after it's grand opening in 2012, the ongoing capital expenditures requirement has continued to drop to a lower level. This reduction in capital expenditures have certainly helped to grow their free cashflows at high CAGR of double digits over the past 5 years.

Thus, Genting Sing is now reaping a good harvest from what it has previously sowed by getting free cashflows at a high CAGR on this huge investment in Resorts World Sentosa. As for current developments, Genting Sing has raised a Samurai bond of approximately $175 million to bid for casino license in Japan. It is still awaiting further legislation approval to allow the opening of casinos in Japan. Among the bidders are strong names like US's Las Vegas Sands and Macau's Galaxy Entertainment Group which have also expressed interest in vying for an entry into Japan market. I have attached a link to an article from Nikkei Asian Review which has details on the above development. Valuation wise, if we assume that Genting Sing will continue to grow their EPS at historical CAGR of 0.76% for next 7 years, using my method of estimation, the fair share price for it is $0.50. The market is trading Genting Sing at $1.12 which is assuming a higher CAGR of 7% to it's EPS. Can Genting Sing improve it's profitability significantly going forward at higher CAGR? If it can, then current share price is not over-valued. I also did a discounted cashflows analysis using a discount rate of 15% and the estimated intrinsic value per share comes out to $1.95. This is just an estimate and the intrinsic value per share could change significantly depending on the discount rate used. My conclusion is that if we focus on the forward profitability of Genting Sing, then it's share price could be over-valued now. However, if we focus on the forward growth in it's free cashflows, then Genting Sing is under-valued now. If we take both forward growth in profitability and free cashflows together with an average fair share price worked out from $0.50 and $1.95, it comes out to $1.225. Out of curiousity, I checked out SGX Stocks Facts to see what it reflected there for Genting Sing's current valuation based on an equal weighted combination of various ratios used in assessing Genting Sing's valuation score versus it's peers. The ratios used include P/E, P/B, P/FCF, dividend yield, EV/EBITDA and EV/sales. Based on an equal weighted combination of these various ratios, Genting Sing is currently estimated to be slightly over-valued as compared to it's peers. I think my main consideration in choosing a great investment idea is that it must not have any flaws or the only one or two flaws it have can be easily overcome in a short period of time. For Genting Sing, I see it's volatile profitability as a potential inherent weakness that is difficult to grasp even though it's reduction in capital expenditures and growth in free cashflows so far looks good. If there is another better investment idea which combines all growth in profitability, growth in free cashflows and strong balance sheet all looking good and the growths are visible into the next few years without the investor needing to guess on it, shouldn't he consider the investment idea that present all stars align together?
One plus factor is the dividend has been generally increasing from the initial 1 cents to 3.5 cents. An increase of 2.5 x .

Thus, if I were to consider Genting Sing, it will only be a speculative value play when very visible value emerges rather than a long term investment.

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Keppel Corp

Today Keppel Corp has managed to shake off the Bear and gain control to close one cents higher at $6.21. this is quite positive!
Let see if it would be able to follow-through and rise above the lower Trend Line.

Not a call to buy or sell.
Pls dyodd.

24th Oct
After hitting the high of $7.30 on 3rd Oct 2018,it has since retreated sharply and continued to trend lower to touch $6.38 today, this is rather bearish.

 Short term wise, I think it may likely move down to retest the recent low of$6.27, Breaking down of $6.27 may likely go lower to retest $6.20 level which is also coincide with the lower channel support level of $6.20.

 I think a technical rebound may likely happen at this level and bring it higher towards $6.60 level. 

Not a call to buy or sell.

 Pls dyodd.

Keppel Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the offshore and marine, property, and infrastructure businesses in Singapore, China, Brazil, other Far East and ASEAN countries, and internationally. It constructs, fabricates, and repairs offshore production facilities and drilling rigs, power barges, specialized vessels, and other offshore production facilities; researches and develops deepwater engineering works; engineers, constructs, and fabricates platforms for the oil and gas sector; undertakes shipyard works and other general business activities; and procures equipment and materials for the construction of offshore production facilities. The company is also involved in the trading and installation of hardware, industrial, marine, and building related products; provision of leasing services; sourcing, fabricating, and supply of steel components; ship repairing, shipbuilding, and conversion activities; marine contracting and ship owning business; painting, blasting, and process and sale of slag; property investment, management, and development activities; fund management; golf and hotel ownership and operation; development of marina lifestyle and residential properties; trading of construction materials; development of district heating and cooling systems; electricity generation and supply, and general wholesale trade businesses; purchase and sale of gaseous fuels; and trading of communication systems and accessories. In addition, it offers jacking systems, and heavy-lift equipment and related services; project management and procurement, towage, financial, real estate investment trust management, logistics and supply chain, warehousing and distribution, data center facilities management, travel agency, and metal fabrication services; housing services for marine workers; and technical consultancy for ship design and engineering works, as well as solid waste treatment solutions. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Singapore.

Monday, October 22, 2018


Today we have witnessed a Beautiful White soldier + quite a good volume and close well at $4.96,  this is rather bullish!

I am going to take advantage of this bullish wide bar and ride on the bullish momentum.

Short term wise, I think it may likely retest $5.00 then $5.05 with extension to $5.15 and above.

Not a cal to buy or sell.

Pls dyodd.

14th July 2018
The latest FY 2017 result : Group revenue was $1.725B

• Operating profit dipped 1.8% to $226.4M

• Share of results from associates and JVs rose 9.2% to $71.2M

• PATMI grew 1.4% to $261.5M • ROE remained creditable at 16.2%

• Free cash flow generated was $146.3M

• EPS improved by 0.9% to 23.4 cents

• Proposed final dividend of 12 cents per share will increase full year dividend by 1 cent to a total of 18 cents

NAV of $1.425

PE of 22.4x

Yield of 3.4% base on current price of $5.25 per share.

Dividend has been constantly increasing from 2013 to 2017.

Net Profit margin has also been generally increasing which is quite positive .

Let us take a look at the financial results numbers for past 5 years:

Hi Sporeshare@jeremyowtaip, SATS was an investment idea that I almost wanted to get in last year when it was trading around $4.60+ region. However, wonder if I was unlucky or what, the share price shortly after I had finished my due diligence started to move higher as though it disliked me from buying it. Thus, I held back and did not chase it at higher price. I was in fact hoping to get it even lower at $4.50 back then but since the price did not go lower but instead went higher, I gave up and moved on to other stock ideas.

Back then I took an interest in SATS after hearing my father talked about how my uncle entered this stock some years back when it was still trading about $1 plus to $2 plus region. My uncle held it until now and it is now at $5+ when he at least double to triple his initial capital. Well, this is not something to scream about over the past decade as there were even stocks which performed much better than SATS in their share price growth. But, it is at least better than punting a wrong penny stock and made losses along the way over the past decade.

Thus, I think my uncle who has very limited investment knowledge also knew how to exercise his common sense to pick reasonably good stocks (though may not be one of the best performing stock) at a cheap price and keep holding it until now to reap such a return on his capital turning in a 2 to 2.5 bagger over the past decade. That equates to a similar performance to ETFs or low cost fund which track S&P500 index that also became a 2.5 bagger over the past decade. This is still a somewhat decent showing of SATS share price performance over the past decade.

The revenues of SATS have compounded over the past 9 years at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.78%. The operating income (EBIT) has compounded over the past 9 years at CAGR of 3.2%. The net income has compounded over the past 9 years at CAGR of 3.77%. The EPS has compounded over the past 9 years at CAGR of 3.6%.

The operating cash flows has compounded over the past 9 years at CAGR of 7.97%. The capital expenditure has compounded over the past 9 years at CAGR of 21.73%. The free cash flows has compounded over the past 9 years at CAGR of 5.21%. The dividends per share has grown from 10 cents 9 years ago to now 16 cents.

The returns on assets, returns on equity and returns on invested capital have took a retreat over the past 9 years but have recovered again in the recent few years back to the same levels as 9 years ago.
If we look at the past 9 years performance of SATS in terms of it's profitability in compounded growths in revenues, operating income, net income and EPS, all the CAGRs of the respective metrics point towards one conclusion. This is a steady but slow growth company. Even though it maybe making some progress in it's topline growth, it's bottom line did not follow the same growth rate and instead only turn out a low single digit compounded growth rate.
If we look at the cash flows trend, this is definitely a cash generating machine albeit not a high growth rate in generating cash. In fact, it's compounded growth in capital expenditure is much higher than compounded growth in operating cash flows and free cash flows. It has invested increasingly a lot more money in capital expenditures in order to generate cash inflows. However, if we look at the ratio of free cash flows to capital expenditures over the past 9 years, the amount of free cash flows generated in any one single year was always about twice or more than twice the amount of capital expenditure. This company was generating hell lots of free cash flows even if it increasingly need to spend more in capital expenditure. No wonder the share price has performed reasonably well over the past 9 years even though not something super fantastic to scream about.
It's current 9M17-18 financial results seems to picture a flat results y-o-y with almost everything from revenue, operating income, net income, EPS, operating cash flows being flattish. Maybe that could be partly the concern why it's share price did not went any much higher but instead dropped from it's peak of $5.85 to now $5.00 after the recent 9M results were announced.
Let's look finally at the valuation with this updated set of 9M17-18 results. If we assume that it's EPS will continue to grow at same CAGR of 3.6% and this could be a reasonable CAGR given that SATS really is not a high growth company anymore. In it's recent financial reports, even though they mentioned some possible areas of growth they are looking at and investing in, it does not seem to really boost their growth currently by any large magnitude. Well, at current large revenue level of $1.73 billion, I guess it is not easy for SATS to grow at any meaningful high double digit growth rates anymore going forward. Maybe they could turn in any single year of superb growth. But to sustain at such high double digit growth rates over the longer term may not be an easy feat for them at their current large size and also in their competitive environment. The management also acknowledges that their operating business environment is challenging and meets with cost pressure.
Using my method of estimation, at current share price of $5, the market is according a CAGR of 6.4% over the next business cycle (7 years forward) for the EPS of SATS. If we assume SATS will follow it's historical CAGR of 3.6% for it's EPS, then a fair value for it's share price will be around $3.69.
However, there could be a twist in this. Over recent two years, the EPS has grown faster than over previous period. If SATS can indeed produce a better CAGR on it's EPS perhaps around 5%, then using my method of estimation again, it's fair share price will be $4.35.
Thus, there are two possible fair values now for your consideration.
The more conservative fair value is around $3.69. The more optimistic fair value is around $4.35. In any case, this means that the share price of SATS is currently overvalued and has possible room to fall to it's fair value. This fall in share price could be likely should the full year FY17-18 results ending in Mar 18 remains flattish or see a marginal decrease which is not impossible since the 9M17-18 results are already flattish. Let's see whether SATS FY17-18 results to be announced in another about two months time will surprise on the upside or confirm my thinking that it could be a flattish year for them in their performance.

Reply to @jeremyowtaip : Great analysis! I have similar view that the topline is growing faster than the bottom line, like most instances, is because the business needs higher Capex to have incremental growth. I prefer the lower capex to grow type of businesses, but they are hard to find and also not cheap.
But having said that, I think overall the earnings power is still there, they have a nice moat around their business, and generating good earnings and cash flow. A 3.6% growth will mean doubling the business every 20 years. For me I don’t have problem with low growth businesses, I have some stocks that are also in the same moderate range of 3-5%. What is left is the price, at PE 21, it is on the overvalued side. But if I have bought this like your uncle at $2, I will likely keep holding it, as fundamentally it is still the same, only thing has changed is the price.

Company bought back share:

SATS did a series of share buy backs recently from mid-Feb to now. I noticed their prices they bought ranged from $4.99 to $5.20. The funny thing and irony is that you posted your comment just after they announced up till their latest share buy backs in this recent series of share buy backs. The management think their share price is cheap to have done share buy backs at current prices while we were discussing that the current share price is overvalued. I will still stand by my view that their share price is currently overvalued. What an irony here! Haha!

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

Sunday, October 21, 2018


Don't Catch the Falling Knife!

From TA point of view, looks rather bearish.
We had witnessed the Gap Down on 6th July 2018 whereby the price has been fallen off from $11.39 to close at $9.40. Since then, it had continue to trend lower and went down to touch $8.10 on 12th Oct 2018. This is super bearish!

Looks like it may likely move down to retest the recent low of $8.10. Breaking down with high volume that may drive the price lower to challenge the support at $8.00. If $8.00 fall to hold then it may slide down to test $7.70 with extension to $7.30 level.

It might be good to wait for it to stabilize first before taking any further action to accumulate.
If it is able to stage a strong rebound and rises above $8.65 then we may likely see a reversal happening.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Pls dyodd.

Saturday, October 20, 2018


I think is almost good time to revisit this STI ETF as can be seen from the chart, RSI is gently rising . Market may still has some room to go lower and the bottom line could be somewhere near 2830 level.

PE is about 10.69x which is still undervalue as the historical average PE is about 15x.
Dividend yield of about 3.63%.

When is the Best time to lock in profit is when the RSI is over 70 and the PE is more than 20.

Not a call to buy or sell.
Pls dyodd.

I think good investing does not require too many fanciful ideas and strategies. Just one simple no-brainer strategy that can work effectively through time and allow us to sit back and relax to enjoyr the reward of the investment that is working effortlessly to achieve our investment goal of getting 8-10% gain( passive income).

This simple strategy is to invest in a low cost ETF( Exchange Traded Fund)  such as the STI ETF (ES3.SI) or NIKKO AM STI ETF(G3B.SI) 

This method of operation is to buy into STI ETF whenever it is in an oversold condition and to sell off and take profits whenever it is in an overbought condition. 

For example, one may use the  indicator such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to determine overbought ( above 70 ) or oversold condition( below 30).

One may plan to buy and selling of units in several batches whenever in oversold or overbought conditions in order to get the best average price.

For example you may plan to buy in at different interval or whenever the Oversold situation happen .

In any one year, there will be three to four such window opportunities of overbought or oversold conditions to operate by buying or selling units of the ETF. At the same time, we can also kept some units always to receive dividend income and for their long term growth in price appreciation.

With discipline and patience , one should be able to get good average returns per year in excess of certain % by this one simple strategy of investing in one single ETF .I think This simple one strategy is safe and allow one to sleep soundly at night without worry of negative news affecting individual stocks in one's portfolio which could crash the share price of the particular stock the next day. This is because even if one or two of the component stocks in STI ETF of blue chips should collapse in share prices, there will be 28 others to diversify away the risk of the entire portfolio collapsing at anytime.

As for younger folks who just started out working and does not have enough cashflows and savings , one may start to spread out the different batch of buying or applying the Dollar-cost-averaging method by investing $1000 at 6-8 different batches that would be able to achieve  lower average costs per unit. 

the example are as follows:-

1. When the index price is $2.00, your $1000 will be able to buy 500 shares.
2. When the index price is $2.50, your $1000 will be able to buy 400 shares
3. When the index price is $2.90, your $1000 will be able to buy 344 shares
4. When the index price is $1.66, your $1000 will be able to buy 625 shares
5. When the index price is $3.00, your $1000 will be able to buy 333 shares
6. When the index price is $3.20, your $1000 will be able to buy 312 shares
7. When the index price is $3.50, your $1000 will be able to buy 285 shares

Total = $7000 / 2799 shares = $ 2.50 average cost per unit.

By using this method, you will be able to make a profit once the stock market rises above this low average price.


Just sharing.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

Thursday, October 18, 2018


From TA point of view,looks bullish!
After touching the low of $1.61, it has managed to stage a strong recovery and head Higher to touch $1.98, this is rather positive.

Short term wise, I think it may likely re-attempt $1.98 . Breaking out with ease plus good volume that may propel to drive the price Higher towards $2.05 then $2.11.

Not a call to buy or sell.
Pls dyodd.

StarHub Ltd, an integrated info-communications company, provides information, communications, and entertainment services for consumer and corporate markets in Singapore. It operates a mobile network that provides 4G and 3G services; and manages a hybrid fibre co-axial network that delivers multi-channel pay TV services, including HDTV, Internet TV, and on-demand services, as well as ultra-high speed residential broadband services. The company also operates a fixed business network that provides a range of data, voice, and wholesale services; and offers a range of business broadband plans, as well as commercial and residential IPTV services. In addition, it offers telco services for various business needs from enterprise mobility to high speed Internet connectivity to VPN; info-communications solutions; and digital services. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Singapore. StarHub Ltd is a subsidiary of Asia Mobile Holdings Pte. Ltd.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018


1st quarter result was released on Friday - 19th Oct 2018 and I think the result could be much better that market expectation of a drop in total revenue and net profit.

Overall it has managed to achieved a S$209 million, up 2% from a year earlier.
Operating profit: S$106 million, unchanged.
Net profit: S$91 million, unchanged
Earnings per share: 8.5 cents
Interim dividend per share: 7.5 cents, up by 2.5 cents

XD on 25th Oct 2018 and pay date on 5th Nov 2018.

Looks like we may see the price heading higher come Monday and head higher to fill up the gap at 7.01 and rises higher towards 7.10 with extension to 7.20 level.

Not a call to buy or sell.
Pls dyodd.

17th Oct 2018
After touching the low of $6.81 it has managed to stage a nice rebound and head higher to hit $6.95 today , this is rather bullish!

Short term wise, I think likely to continue to head higher!

Testing $7.01 then $7.10 with extension to $7.30 level .

Not a call to buy or sell.

Pls dyodd.

Going forward, the company will be giving out quarterly dividend of 7.5 cents for each quarter which is adding up to a total of 30 cents yearly dividend. A nice dividend counter to put in on our watchlist or portfolio.

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Temasek 5 years bond

Temasek is offering 5 years bond @ 2.7%. 

Application is open to public on 17 October to 23rd October 2018 noon time.

Application and Payment Procedures for Retail Investors in Public Offer An application under the Public Offer must be in multiples of S$1,000, subject to a minimum subscription of S$1,000.

Applications under the Public Offer are payable in full immediately, and must be made through: 

ATMs of DBS Bank, POSB, OCBC Bank or UOB; 

Internet banking websites of - DBS Bank at , - POSB Bank at , - OCBC Bank at , or - UOB at ; or  Mobile banking apps of DBS Bank or POSB.

 Retail investors in Singapore will need a CDP account to apply for this bond. Subscriptions under the Public Offer will be subject to balloting and allocation if the total subscriptions exceed the amount available for subscription under the Public Offer. If an applicant under the Public Offer is unsuccessful, in whole or part, for whatever reason, the unsuccessful proportion of the application amount will be refunded without interest.

 More details can be found in “Terms, Conditions and Procedures for Application and Acceptance” in Appendix C of the Pricing Supplement.

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Ascendas Reit

I think this is a good solid Reit counter with great sponsor and we'll diversified portfolio consists of Data center, warehousibg, retail and distribution, logistics etc covering Singapore, Australia and UK. 

A-REIT announced private placement of 178 million in September 2018 for new units at $2.54 a piece to raise $452.1 million of proceeds to partly fund the second acquisition in UK and also to fund the development of new built-to-suit (BTS) property in Singapore. Some of the new financing will be used to pare down debt as well.

According to pro forma figures, management expects the acquisitions to lift the distribution per unit (DPU) .

22nd September 2018
Last Friday we have witnessed a wide Bearish bar down 4 cents to close at 2.56 , couple with High volume this is rather bearish.

Short term wise, I think it may likely retest 2.54 then 2.49 with extension to 2.45 level.

 Not a call to buy or sell.

 Pls dyodd.

 Based on A-REIT's own announcement on their rationale for the private placement, it was meant to raise funds for acquisition of a UK portfolio of 12 properties which A-REIT thinks will increase long term distributions for unitholders. The funds raised from private placement was also to be used for a built to suit property development, for repayment of some debts, for reducing their gearing, for setting aside some cash for future acquisitions and also to increase trading liquidity of it's units. It seems that A-REIT has good rationale for doing this private placement.

 I provide a link below for further read on A-REIT's recent private placement.

 Let us see below. Over the past 9 years, A-REIT has grown it's revenue at a CAGR of 9.02%. It has grown it's net property income at a CAGR of 8.72%. It has grown it's distributions to unitholders at a CAGR of 9.27%. It has grown it's value of investment properties at a CAGR of 9.63%.

 "Hot stock: Ascendas Reit units down 2.6% after manager prices S$452m placement at S$2.54 per unit" by The Business Times https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/hot-stock-ascendas-reit-units-down-26-after-manager-prices-s452m-placement-at-s254