Thursday, May 31, 2018

Wilmar Intl

Holding up well within the range of 3.20 to 3.26 . Looks like it may likely re-captured $3.28 . Breaking out of $3.28 with ease + good volume that may propel to drive the price higher towards $3.30 then $3.40.

I think the dir has bought back share again at $3.20 per share .

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

18 May 2018 - Wil dir has been buying up share after the released of their first quarter result!

He has snapped up share raning from $3.11 to $3.15.

Without this support ,price may have corrected lower.

It has now managed to recover and fill up the Gap at $3.21.
Yesterday closed well at $3.23, looks rather bullish!

It may move up to retest $3.28 soon!

Do take note that it's NAV is about $3.30-$3.40.

Wilmar Intl Went up to touch the high of $3.27 but was being sold down end of the day to close at $3.21 . Down 4 cents from $3.25 yesterday closing price.

It seems like some insider news being leaked prior to result was released after trading hours.

1Q 2018 result, Total revenue was up 5.7% to 11.116m.Net profit was down 37.2 % to US183.4m , EPS of 3.2 (US) due to lower palm oil price and sugar ops loss.

Ops cash flow was healthy generating US1.83m.

NAV of $3.40.

Not a call to buy or sell.

 Wilmar - touch $3.26 again. Looks rather bullish! Breaking out with ease may sail smoothly towards $3.30.

MACD is rising that may likely provide further indication that the share price may likely continue to trend higher.

Price is hovering above the SMA lines. High chance for a nice breaking out moment that may take the price higher to 3.30 and $3.40 and above.

Not a call to buy or sell.
please do your own due diligence.

Wilmar Intl - NAV $3.304, Rolling EPS 0.306, PE 13.721.

Together with Interim dividend of 3 cents. Total dividend is 10 cents. Yield is 3.2% at $3.12 per share. The recent share buying back by company director of 2.44m share at $3.103 per share & 79300 share at $3.18 per share may likely be a boost of confidence.. I have jeep small lots at $3.12 today.

.I am buying for the future growth and may be the listing of their China ipo.. dyodd. Reply to @Sporeshare : Ah.....This is the golden big question! If Wilmar is really pushing for an IPO of their China operations in Shanghai exchange, I think can look at other similar commodity giants that are already listed in Shanghai exchange to see where are they trading now in their price to earnings multiple. That will give us a good gauge what types of multiples we are potentially looking at. Surely, we cannot expect Wilmar to list their China operations at too low a gap from their peer competitors on Shanghai exchange. If that is the case, why still push for IPO listing if the valuation it would fetch is not attractive at all? If want to unlock value by the IPO, might as well unlock it well.

 I attached an article from TheEdgeSingapore which an analyst pegs a target price of $4.10 based on an attractive valuation now, strong crushing margins so far in FY18 and the anticipated listing of its China unit. You can read through the article to see the rationale put forth by the analyst. In any case, we are not trying to be precise in forecasting our target price.

 The analyst puts forth a possible listing of the China unit at up to 23 P/E ratio on the Shanghai exchange. Based on good common sense and my previous sharing, Wilmar's share price definitely has all the good catalysts as we can see currently going for it to reach a higher price level. My previous estimated fair price of $3.18 is based on a worst case scenario. Unless we think Wilmar will eventually fail in all accounts of the prospected catalysts in having weaker overall performance this year and anticipated listing of it's China unit falls through, then worst case scenario may pan out. Thus, the downside as I can see on probability terms is low while upside has high probability of happening. Therefore, if you ask me, is $4 you quoted likely to reach in future? My answer is even if not reaching $4, I think the probability of the share price rising higher from current level in view of all these potential future catalysts is surely there. How about a $3.60 price in future based on my "anyhow" guess? I think that will be already at least a good perk of 11.5% share price gain if it really happens by this year end. $4.10 will be even more "shiok" with a potential return of 26.9% if it really happens within one year's time based on the analyst's target price in this article by

TheEdgeSingapore! I think it is a case of making either more or lesser returns from this bet here on Wilmar. As long as one does not chase at higher price if it should chiong but instead has already accumulated cheap in advance, one should be falling into the case of making more or lesser returns on this bet hopefully within one year's time frame. Wilmar International. The overall feel I have of this large agricultural international group is that it already has extensive and deep degree of reach in it's agricultural and related businesses in terms of many geographical regions they are in (about 50 countries as reported on their website with about 500 manufacturing plants worldwide) and also the entire value chain they are serving from upstream plantation and harvesting to mid stream processing and refining to downstream distribution and sales of their final products to consumers. On a one decade time frame, Wilmar International has compounded it's revenues at a CAGR of 10.3% which is respectable and not surprising considering how significant this group has grown over the years. It's operating income has compounded at a CAGR of 8.1% over the past decade. It's net income has compounded at a CAGR of 7.7% over the past decade. It's EPS has compounded at a CAGR of 4.1% over the past decade. Again, this looks like a moderate to slow grower over the past decade just slightly better than SATS that we looked at previously in terms of the growth in it's profitability. If we look at their past 5 years trend for the revenue, operating income, net income and EPS, there was a dip in all these metrics after FY12 onwards which only recovered in their FY17 results near to FY12 levels.

 qUOTE : I checked up the palm oil historical prices and indeed it confirmed my thinking that this dip over the past 5 years which only recovered recently was probably correlated to the drop in palm oil price over the past 5 years. Currently, palm oil price has recovered from the lows but still it is now only two-thirds of the last peak price reached in 2012. The big question is whether the palm oil price will continue to recover towards the last peak price reached in 2012 going forward or continue to hold around current price and do a ding-dong in price, sometimes up and sometimes down but no clear up direction for the next few years? This I do not know as I think only insiders of the palm oil industry will know the dynamic factors of global supply and demand affecting palm oil prices. I consider this as outside my circle of competence. But looking at palm oil historical prices, it sure looked quite volatile to me and hard to grasp.{ jeremyowtaip} As such, the various trend on their returns on assets (ROA), returns on equity (ROE) and returns on invested capital have also dipped over the past 5 years and have almost recovered in the latest set of FY17 results to close to same returns as FY12. However, the various returns are still single digits returns in %. For example in FY17, ROA is now around 3% while ROE is around 7.6%. If we stretch further backwards to compare their current returns against one decade ago which the various returns were higher in FY07 of ROA around 6.7% while ROE was around 13.8%, we can clearly see that Wilmar is now not a high return beast as it used to be a decade ago. It seems that it is not easy to attain the same returns as before anymore now that Wilmar has outgrown so much that at it's current size it cannot generate the same returns on assets and shareholder equity as before. Now again, the big question is how will the various returns going forward in future years be like? Will it remain around same level as now or become lower? Size is one thing which makes it increasingly difficult to generate the same level of returns. What if they can grow their revenue and profits further in future years should palm oil prices recover? Maybe there could be a chance to improve their returns though going back to double digits returns likely will be difficult.

This would mean they have to increase their current net profits by another approximately 120% at current size of total assets for example to go back to previous decade ago record of ROA. A jump in 120% increase in net profits at current level of USD 1.22 billion for WIlmar next year based on core businesses and not through some non-recurring disposal of assets? One must be joking to ask the dog to jump over the high wall! The financial leverage of Wilmar has been steady over the years managing their debts level and balance sheet well. Cash flows wise though can be volatile seems to still generate free cash flows at least enough to pay a dividends which has grown over the past decade. Their CAGR for EPS over the past 5 years has been about 0% even though 10 years CAGR was 4.1%. I will factor in a best case scenario and a worst case scenario in estimating their fare share price value taking into account all the above mentioned details of this comment. If we make a best case scenario of Wilmar continuing to grow it's current EPS at CAGR of 4.1% going forward, then using my method of estimation, their fare share price will be $4.25. However, if we make a worst case scenario of a CAGR of 2% on their EPS going forward for next business cycle (7 years), then their fair share price will be $3.18. This is mind-blowing! It all depends on the performance of Wilmar going forward. If they can parallel their historical compounded growth rates on their EPS, then it will be a bonus to buy their shares now at cheap cheap share price! However, should they grow at a lower forward CAGR about somewhere half in % terms on their EPS, then we are exactly getting Wilmar now at fair value $3.18 and it will not be cheap now to buy! This really requires an investor's forward opinion on how Wilmar will perform for next 7 years cycle to decide whether to put in his or her stake at current price. Will this be a value buy or value trap? Hmm Wilmar International has since diversified their commodity businesses over the years into business segments including tropical oils, oilseeds and grains, sugar and biofuels and other investment businesses. This horizontal diversification and vertical integration tapping at all levels of the value chain has allowed Wilmar to grow to it's current humongous size despite being in a general low profit margin agricultural commodity businesses. I forgot to mention another important piece of bright spot for Wilmar! I read up in it's most recent financial report that they are considering looking at an IPO listing of their China rice, flour and related consumer products operations in China. But things are still in the early stage of assessment. If that were to happen, imagine the craze of investors rushing in for this potential spin-off of their China businesses which will unlock value for shareholders. Then, buying at current share price is now cheap if we factor in this potential unlocking of value from such a future proposition which will increase their profits and returns by some substantial jump if that were to happen some time down the road. It may happen as early as 2019 based on a write-up by Singapore Business Review. Hmm....I am now starting to get somewhat interested after knowing this. Some info on Shree Renuka Sugars I found out. It is the largest raw sugar producer in India and Brazil. As what the others have pointed out, the management was too aggressive in their overseas expansion bet in South America which didn't go well chalking up huge debts. This is because after year 2012, the sugar prices dropped from their peak reached and also correlated to Shree Renuka's operating losses from 2013 to now as sugar prices remain lower and now only recovered to two-third of the peak price reached in 2012. Wilmar has this chance to acquire a controlling stake in Shree Renuka Sugars because the latter chalked up so much debts from their aggressive expansion to South America market which didn't pan out well. Thus, during this current debt restructuring exercise, Wilmar can take this opportunity to acquire a controlling stake in the equity of India and Brazil largest raw sugar producer Shree Renuka Sugars. quote :I will need to examine the financial strength of Wilmar whether they can take on this acquisition without risking themselves too much. But, the offer to acquire a controlling stake in Shree Renuka Sugars by itself sounds to be a wonderful move. If sugar prices should continue to recover to previous peaks in 2012 and earlier, Shree Renuka Sugars may be able to return to better profitability again. The return on invested capital for Shree Renuka Sugars before they went downhill in 2013 are still good. If Wilmar after acquiring Shree Renuka Sugars can turnaround this largest sugar producer in India and Brazil successfully, it will be very good for Wilmar to further expand their sugar business significantly.

PS: Shall investigate whether Wilmar is strong enough to take on this acquisition without stressing their balance sheet too much. Get back to you again. I did an estimation on the required amount for Wilmar to make the acquisition of shares in Shree Renuka Sugars based on regulations of Securities and Exchange Board of India after Wilmar converted it's convertible preference shares to common equity shares and triggered the regulations of the exchange to make an offer to acquire up to 26% of the emerging share capital of Shree Renuka Sugars. The cash outlay needed to acquire up to 26% of the emerging share capital of Shree Renuka Sugars is approximately USD 124 million. Wilmar has about USD 2.96 billion in cash and equivalents plus other bank deposits. It's current ratio stands at around 1.15 based on FY17 financial report. This acquisition requires very small cash outlay for Wilmar as compared to the cash and bank deposits it now has. However, after the acquisition of a controlling stake in Shree Renuka Sugars has been completed, I am not sure how much remaining debts of Shree Renuka Sugars Wilmar will carry as some of the debts owed to the lenders have been converted to equity in Shree Renuka Sugars. I checked up Shree Renuka Sugars balance sheet as at Sep 17. They carried a total of about USD 1 billion worth of total liabilties on their balance sheet. With some of the borrowings of Shree Renuka Sugars converted to equity, the total liabilities should be lesser than this figure. Thus, with Wilmar's existing USD 2.96 billion in cash and equivalents plus bank deposits and if we consider Wilmar's current assets of total about USD 22.6 billion, Wilmar definitely has much more than enough resources to cover the liabilities of Shree Renuka Sugars even after Wilmar completes this acquisition of a controlling stake in it.

 There is no concern at all in acquiring a controlling stake in Shree Renuka Sugars for Wilmar. Instead, Wilmar would have gotten this India and Brazil largest raw sugar producer under it's wings.(jeremyowtaip) But having said that, those few stocks we discussed about like Wilmar and Thai Beverage are good stocks to hold for the longer term as there are future potential catalysts in them. The potential listing of China operations for Wilmar which will unlock value for shareholders and may re-rate share price higher. The future long term contributions to earnings and returns from the new acquisitions for Thai Beverage will outpace the cost of their initial investment. The market position of Thai Beverage has strengthened as a leader in this Southeast Asia region with these acquisitions. The fair share price of Thai Beverage I cannot determine at the moment. But, in future the direction of the share price can only go one way which is up as the new acquisitions start to increase the overall profitability and cash flows further while the debts get slowly reduced over time. For SATS, it is a steady slow grower. Just need a bear market to grab it cheap at fair value or lower than fair value and see the price will bounce back and trade higher than fair value due to so many favourables surrounding it which may continue for a very long number of years ahead.

Wednesday, May 30, 2018


Dow jumps more than 300 points after banks rebound; small caps hit new record.

The company bought back 5m share at 90-91.5 cents, looks like we may see a strong rebound today especially with Dow gaining 300+ points overnight.

  • The Dow Jones industrial average rose more than 300 points, with Boeing, Chevron and Home Depot leading the blue-chip stocks higher. The Russell 2000 hit a new high.
  • The euro recovers much of its previous losses with a 1.1 percent climb against the greenback to $1.166.
  • An uptick in rates push the big banks upward, with Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Wells Fargo all finishing up more than 1 percent.
  • Crude oil futures settled higher Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up $1.48, or 2.22 percent. (

Chart wise, we have witnessed the price Gap down from 95 cents to touch the low of 90 cents . It has manage to bounce-off from this level and closed higher at 92.5 cents .

Looks like we are seeing a hammer shape candlestick bar is appearing on the chart, seem like bull is able to take control of the situation.

Short term wise, we may likely see a reversal play taking place it it is able to overcome 97.5 cents and rises back to $1.00 and above .

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

NAV of $1.29.
Dividend of 4.5 cents

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd., an investment holding company, operates in the shipbuilding activities. The company operates through Shipbuilding, Investments, Trading, and Others segments. It produces a range of commercial vessels, such as containerships, dry bulk carriers, oil tankers, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. The company also engages in the production and processing of steel structures. In addition, it facilitates the sale and export of ships for the ship builder; trades in ship related equipment and shipbuilding related materials/supplies; provides microcredit to enterprises and individuals; invests in held-to-maturity financial assets; and supplies marine equipment and materials. Further, the company is involved in the ship demolition and vessel owning activities. It primarily serves ship owners in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Greece, Norway, Argentina, Turkey, Bulgaria, Poland, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, India, Thailand, Bangladesh, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, etc. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Jingjiang, China.

Tuesday, May 29, 2018


Dow losses almost 400 points to close lower at 24,361.45 amid losses in Goldman Sachs, Boeing, and J.P. Morgan Chase. At its lows, the index lost more than 500 points, or 2 percent.
The S&P 500 fell 1.16 percent to close at 2,689.86, while the Nasdaq composite fell 0.5 percent to finish at 7,396.59.

Stocks extended their losses throughout the day as European exchanges closed and the euro fell further against the dollar.
Concerns about a global credit blight and anemic interest rates appeared to weigh on U.S. financial stocks Tuesday, sending shares of the nation's largest banks tumbling. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America all lost more than 3 percent.
The Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) exchange-traded fund fell 3.34 percent, below its 200-day moving average.
Banking investors could be nervous that a decline in global credit could lead to collateral damage to holders of international bonds, though widespread strengthening in global government debt Tuesday also dampened the banking outlook. (

Likely to see bank counter such as DBS, Ocbc & Uob being selling down today due to not so rosy market sentiment.

DBS may likely go down to retest it's recent low of $28.51 level. Breaking down of this level would be rather bearish and may likely see it goes further down towards $28 with extension to $27.00.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

Keppel Corp

With the Gap down yesterday looks rather bearish! The MA is about to turn down .MACD is showing sign of negative divergence. Likely to test 7.80,7.70 then 7.50.

Brent crude oil rose on Tuesday, paring losses triggered by expectations that Saudi Arabia and Russia could pump more crude to compensate for a potential supply shortfall.
Brent crude futures were up 52 cents at $75.82 a barrel at 9:46 a.m. ET (1346 GMT), after settling on Monday at their lowest since May 8 at $75.30.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 94 cents, or 1.4 percent, at $66.94 a barrel, sitting around its lowest since April 17. (

Looks like oil price may go lower to test $65 then $60.

Dow drops 150 points as Italy worries unsettle euro zone.

I think short term wise Kepcorp price may trend lower .

Not a call to buy or sell.
Please do your own due diligence.

Monday, May 28, 2018


Today drop one cents lowered and closed at 76 cents ,looks rather bearish ! It has broken down the support at 78 cents couple with high volume ,this is rather negative and may likely see further selling down pressure.

The immediate support is at 72 cents , failing to hold at this level, next, we may see it goes further down towards 69 cents .

 Not a call to buy or sell.

 Please do your own due diligence.

ThaiBev - 2Q 2018 result Net Profit decrease 3.2% to 6,346 million Baht( exclude non-recurring expenses relating to business acquisition).

EPS is down 3.8% to 0.25 Baht .

1st Half 2018 EBITDA is down 11.67% to 17,487 million Baht.

First Half 2018 Net profit is down 27% to 10,451 million Baht.

First Half EPS is down 35.1% to 0.37 Baht versus 0.57 Baht last year.

NAV is also lowered from S$0.22 to S$0.21.

Dividend has been cut from 20 cents Baht to 15 cents Baht.(a decrease of 25% )

Looking through at the Interest Bearing debts:

They have to allocate 16,784 million Baht for Mar 2019 interest loan.

The 2nd year i.e. After one year but within two years (Mar 2020), the debt amount is super high at 163,766 million Baht.

After two years , 53,967 million Baht.

Total 234,517 million Baht.

I think the debts may likely affect the profitability for the next financial years as well as the following years whereby the interest bearing has more than 10x of year 2019.

It is good to be extra cautious when dealing with this counter.

Not a call to Buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

The recent Acquisitions :

• In the second quarter ended 31 March 2018, the Company completed an acquisition of

• 75% shareholding interest in Havi Logistic Co.,Ltd. (Havi), which operates logistic businesses for food services in Thailand, by Thai Beverage Logistics Co.,Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company on 28 February 2018.

• The Company has included the assets and liabilities of Havi in the consolidated statements of financial position and the results of operations and cash flows in the consolidated statement of income and cash flows respectively from March 2018 onwards.

• Havi’s operations were recognized under the food business segment.

• In the first quarter ended 31 December 2017, the Company completed 4 acquisitions of

1. a 76% shareholding interest in Spice of Asia Co.,Ltd. (SOA) on 3 October 2017 to operate 10 stores of restaurants serving hotpot and Thai food

2. a 75% shareholding interest in Myanmar Supply Chain and Marketing Services Co.,Ltd. and Myanmar Distillery Co.,Ltd. (MSC & MDC), which incorporated in the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, on 12 October 2017 to operate spirits business in Myanmar

3. 252 existing KFC stores in Thailand by The QSR of Asia Co.,Ltd. (QSA), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company on 1 December 2017

4. a 53.59% shareholding interest in Saigon Beer – Alcohol – Beverage Joint Stock Corporation (Sabeco), a company incorporated in The Socialist Republic of Vietnam and currently listed in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE), on 29 December 2017 to operate mainly in beer business

Sunday, May 27, 2018

Raffles Med

Script dividend scheme - notice of election : offering price for new share is at $0.99 per share.

share holder for those that are interested to receive the script dividend share may sign and submit the form back on 19th June before 5pm in order to qualify for this script election.

I think The current price of $1.07 has provided quite a good discount given for subscribing the new share at $0.99 per share.

From TA point of view, it is on a downtrend mode.
The price is staying below the SMA lines and is rather bearish.

Currently, it is hovering near the support at 1.07.

Next support level would be 1.05 & 1.03.

30th April - 1st qtr result is out. Net profit is ip 3.0% from $14,965m to $15,466m.

Total revenue has also risen from $114,915m to $120,189m.
Operation cash flow has also increased from $18,175m to $23,962m.

I think the first quarter result has improved slightly in terms of revenue, total net income and as well as operation cash flow..

Trade/invest base on your own decision.

quote : jeremyowtaip
Yeah! This one no need think so much. Long term trend in share price is up supported by general growth in domestic and medical tourism as a baseline support. The potential catalysts are the two new China hospitals which will contribute to it's earnings growth going forward. Even if the initial execution meets with hiccups, I think they will be able to work things out for the longer term as I am confident they have already done their extensive due diligence and ground studies before embarking on the new hospitals. And it is not just one but two new hospitals set up in two separate cities in China. To be able to trigger such a huge expansion project, they must have worked out that on a long term basis, the market there in China have tailwinds favouring demand for private medical healthcare. And Chongqing and Shanghai are two of the largest cities in China which are strategically located with high population and considered few of the important economic centres of China apart from Beijing.

Total Revenue has been consistently increasing from $340.99m in 2013 to $477.58m in 2017.

The Total Revenue is growing at a CAGR of 8.1%. A single digits high ,of which I think is quite good already.

 Operation cash flow has been quite healthy as they are able to generate $71.19m in 2013 to $82 .69m in 2017.

 Net income Margin has been generally declining from 24.89% to 14.82% in 2017.

It might be due to higher material /operation costs. NAV of 40.01 cents. EPS of 4 cents. PE of 27.64 times

 Dividend has been generally increasing from 1.7 cents in 2013 to 2.2 cents in 2017. This is really a welcome news for shareholder .

 For RMG, I have two possible fair values depending on how well it can execute it's new expansion and growth of it's Bugis hospital extension and also it's two China hospitals to grow it's EPS.

For the conservative fair value, it is $1.14 assuming a CAGR of 10% on it's EPS for next 7 years.

 For the more aggressive fair value, it is $1.46 assuming a CAGR of 14% on it's EPS for next 7 years. Thus, any price $1.14 and below is a bargain opportunity. not a call to buy or sell. dyodd.

Raffles Medical Group Ltd engages in the medical clinics operation and other general medical service businesses primarily in Singapore. The company operates through three segments: Healthcare Services, Hospital Services, and Investment Holdings. Its flagship hospital is Raffles Hospital, a tertiary care hospital that offers services, including emergency, cancer, children and women care, traditional Chinese medicine, counselling, dental, diabetes and endocrinology, dialysis, ear nose and throat, eye, family medicine, fertility, health screening, heart, internal medicine, international patients services, neuroscience, pain management, rehabilitation, radiology, Japanese clinic, orthopaedic, skin and aesthetics, surgery, urology, and nuclear medicine services for inpatients and outpatients. The company also operates 100 medical clinics that provide various services, such as general practice/family medicine, emergency, health check, health screening, immunization, travel health, specialty, minor surgery, X-ray, pre-marital screening, and corporate programs; provides health and related insurance; trades in pharmaceutical and nutraceutical products, and diagnostic equipment; and provides healthcare management and consultancy services, as well as specialized medical, medical laboratory, imaging center, dental, and clinical services. In addition, it owns properties; develops IT solutions; provides advisory and medical emergency assistance services; and sells medical kits. The company was founded in 1976 and is based in Singapore.

Saturday, May 26, 2018

Singapore Telecom

Second time share buying back by the company. 131,000 share @ $3.34 .

Looks like price is trading at an attractive yield of 5.26% if solely base on annually dividend of 17.5 cents . If factoring in special dividend of 0.3 cents , yield would be 5.35%.

SingTel - Chart wise, it is rather weak and may likely continue to trend lower.
The current price of $3.34 is staying below its 20,50,100 & 200 days moving average. This is rather bearish.

Short term wise, I think it may likely move down to retest the recent low of 3.30.

Breaking down of 3.30 with high volume that would be super bearish and may likely see it slide further down towards 3.19 with extension to 3.08.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

18 May 2018 - long time didn't see company buying back share ! Looks positive!

Today saw the company bought back 294000+ share between $3.42 to $3.43.

Singtel posts record full-year earnings on NetLink Trust divestment and strong core business 

Financial year ended 31 March 2018

 Record net profit of S$5.45 billion, including divestment gains from NetLink Trust  Operating revenue up 5% to S$17.53 billion

 Strong core and digital businesses drive growth

 Free cash flow up 18% to S$3.61 billion on strong operating cash flow

 Q4 revenue stable and net profit down 19% on weaker associates’ earnings

 Proposed final dividend per share of 10.7 cents; total dividend per share of 17.5 cents


The Board is recommending a final ordinary dividend per share of 10.7 cents, bringing the total ordinary dividend per share for the year to 17.5 cents, representing a payout of approximately S$2.86 billion.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Group expects to maintain its ordinary dividends of 17.5 cents per share for the next two financial years and thereafter, will revert to the payout of between 60% and 75% of underlying net profit.

“These results reflect the strong execution of our digital transformation strategy in both our core and new digital businesses. Optus gained market share in Australia underscoring its network and content strategy while our ICT and digital businesses now account for 24% of revenue, with digital marketing arm Amobee achieving growth and positive EBITDA for the year,” said Ms Chua Sock Koong, Singtel Group CEO. “We remain focused on what is important to both our consumer and enterprise customers – premium mobile networks, secure high-speed connectivity, innovative products and services, and excellent customer service. Besides strengthening our competitiveness, this allows us to deliver even greater value to customers.”

 Across the region, all of the Group’s regional associates continued to drive growth in data. However, Airtel’s results were impacted by intense competition with very aggressive pricing led by a new player and further aggravated by mandated cuts in mobile termination rates in India. This is despite recording its highest quarterly net customer adds and strong data usage growth in India, and continued positive growth momentum in Africa. Last month, Airtel announced the merger of Indus Towers and Bharti Infratel to create the largest tower company in the world outside of China, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. Telkomsel’s earnings were impacted by the decline in legacy services and heightened price competition particularly during the SIM card registration implementation. Profit contributions from AIS grew on revenue improvement and cost management. Globe also delivered strong earnings growth due to robust data revenue growth and cost control.

Competition remains intense in India but the right regulatory policies and sector consolidation should lead to a more stable market structure in the mid term. In Indonesia, Telkomsel Singapore Telecommunications Limited 2 of 8 Company registration number: 199201624D continues to expand its network to create significant capacity and grow its digital business.

 To forge new areas of growth, we are accelerating collaborations with our regional associates to build an ecosystem of digital services by leveraging the Group’s strengths and customer base across 21 countries.” Recently announced initiatives include a cross-border payments service to connect the Group’s telco wallets in Asia, and strategic partnerships in the areas of e-payments, e-sports and sports content. The Group’s cash position remains strong.

Free cash flow for the full year rose 18% to S$3.61 billion, and for the quarter grew 5% to S$800 million.


 In Australia, Optus gained market share as it successfully differentiated itself through its network and content strategy. For the full year, it added a total of 384,000 new mobile customers and 225,000 new NBN broadband customers.

Revenue grew 3% in the quarter as higher equipment sales and strong customer growth offset lower NBN migration revenues due to NBN’s temporary suspension order while EBITDA declined 5%. Excluding NBN migration revenues, revenue would have grown 6% and EBITDA increased 3%. Mobile service revenue grew 1%, impacted by higher service credits. Postpaid ARPU was affected by an increased mix of SIM-only plans, higher device repayment credits and data price competition. Mass market fixed revenues excluding NBN migration revenues increased 6%.

In Singapore, for the quarter, consumer revenue was down 4% and EBITDA declined 14%. Mobile communications revenue was impacted by voice to data substitution, declines in roaming services and a higher mix of SIM-only plans.

The launch of premium handsets presented an opportunity to increase customer recontracting numbers, strengthen customer relationships and reduce churn. Around 18% of new and recontracting postpaid customers signed up for SIM-only plans during the quarter. Home revenues declined with the cessation of Premier League sublicensing and lower fixed voice usage but was partially mitigated by continued growth in broadband services.

Singtel relaunched its flagship store at Comcentre with state-of-the-art features and integration of online-offline channels to give customers greater ease of use.

In the content space, Group Consumer scored broadcasting rights for all the 2018 FIFA World Cup matches in Singapore and Australia. Optus also secured exclusive Premier League rights for three more seasons, solidifying its position as a leading multi-media entertainment company.


 Group Enterprise revenue was stable for the quarter as growth in ICT revenues offset the continued erosion of the carriage business. ICT services was boosted by strong contributions from cyber security and cloud services.

Cyber security revenue rose 16% on the back of strong growth in managed security services and momentum in the Asia Pacific region.

In Australia, Optus Business maintained its revenue momentum at 5% growth this quarter, driven by sustained growth in mobile revenue and major ICT contract wins.


Group Digital Life continued to scale and make progress towards profitability. Revenue grew 54%1 for the quarter with EBITDA at breakeven, lifted by one-off content cost credit and government grants.

In my opinion, SingTel has again shown it ability to grow its business and total revenue for the Full Year rises 4.9% to 17,532m.

Underlying Net profit is down 7.8% ( excluding divestment gains) was 3,544m.

Underlying Net profit if included divestment gain of 1,908m , Up 42.2% to 5,451m.

What an outstanding result.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.


NAV of $1.98.
Dividend of 7.5 cents
Yield of 5.63%
Current price $1.33
Estimate EPS of 13.3 cents
PE is about 10x

Chart wise, it seems to have hit the bottom at around $1.26 level and manage to bounce-off and rises higher to $1.33.

The current price has managed to reclaimed and rises above it's 20 days moving average ,this is rather positive.

Short term wise, it may likely retest 1.36. Breaking out with ease + good volume that may drive the price higher towards 1.40 then 1.45 with extension to 1.58 level.
Chiong ah!

Not a call to buy or sell.

Trade/invest base on your own decision.

Sunningdale Tech - I have looked through Sunningdale Tech and here are my thoughts on this tech company.

Sunningdale Tech is a leading Asian tooling, plastic injection moulding and precision assembly company. They are currently operating in four main business segments namely automotive, consumer/IT/environment, healthcare and tooling/mould fabrication. They currently have 19 manufacturing facilities spread across 9 countries and as their chairman mentioned, they continue to receive queries from both new and existing customers who recognise their ability to undertake projects on a global scale. So far so good, the background business profile seems to suggest they are a global player in their field.

The chairman in the FY16 annual report did raised a few challenges their businesses constantly face such as foreign exchange movements, rising labour cost, pricing pressure from customers, rising input costs, and structural reforms in China (which affects their China based businesses).

With these backdrop, let us look into their business performance so far over the past decade. First, we look into how their revenues have grown over the past decade. Revenues have grown by a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.52% over past decade.

Next, their operating profit has grown by a CAGR of 9.2% over the past decade.
Next, their profit attributable to shareholders has grown by a CAGR of 9.98% over the past decade.
Next, their diluted earnings per share (EPS) has grown by an impressive CAGR of 25.9% over the past decade.

This is a low profit margin company. Let's look at how the profit margins have changed a decade ago compared to now.
Operating profit margin = 4.6% (2007) vs 5.9% (2017)
Profit attributable to shareholders margin = 3.1% (2007) vs 4.3% (2017)

The various profit margins have improved over the past decade though they are generally still at low single digits. The operating profit, profit attributable to shareholders and diluted EPS have all grown faster than revenues. It seems that Sunningdale Tech have managed to keep the various operating expenses well controlled to achieve better operating efficiency. Indeed, the % of operating expenses (excluding finance cost) over revenues have decreased from 12.4% to 9.6% over the past decade. In 2017, operating expenses (excluding finance cost) only made up 9.6% of their revenue. They have been definitely doing well to reduce operating expenses while improving profit margins amidst a challenging business environment they operate in with pricing pressure from customers and rising input cost and labour cost over the past decade.

Now let's look some of the various metrics from their balance sheet and see how have they changed over the past decade.
Current ratio = 1.21 (2007) vs 1.74 (2017)
Quick ratio = 0.39 (2007) vs 0.39 (2017)
Debt to equity ratio = 0.29 (2007) vs 0.28 (2017)
Shareholder equity CAGR = 1.12%

This was a net net company (current assets > total liabilities) a decade ago and a decade later, it still maintains it's net net company status. The company has maintained similar leverage level taken a decade ago and now. It's balance sheet is strong as it has maintained it's net net status over the past decade. However, Sunningdale Tech did not grow it's shareholder equity at high CAGR thus not making their shareholders wealthier at a fast rate.

The returns on assets, returns on equity and returns on invested capital a decade ago were at low single digits of 2.36%, 3.75% and 3.62% respectively. However, the various returns have improved over the past decade and now returns on assets, returns on equity and returns on invested capital stand at 6.98%, 13.28% and 10.75% respectively. Clearly, the management has become more efficient over the past decade in producing better returns.

 The question now is can the management continue to improve their various returns any further or are these the best they can achieve? This is because the various returns though have improved over the past decade, have also remained stagnant around current levels for the past 3 years.
Next, we look at how their cashflows have grown. Operating cashflows have not grown much at all and remained at about similar levels now as compared to a decade ago. Free cashflows have decreased in their reported FY17 financial results as compared to a decade ago. I noticed the trend of their operating cashflows and free cashflows over the past decade can be quite volatile with some years having more operating cashflows and free cashflows while other years having lesser.

Nevertheless, their free cashflows are still able to meet their dividends paid. One may need to watch their future cashflows carefully to make sure their cashflows can continue to grow even while over any single year, it may show volatile swings. If future cashflows do not grow anymore and even show a decreasing trend, then it could be a potential red flag to watch out for.

Nevertheless, Sunningdale Tech has strong balance sheet. But, we will also like to see that it can continue to receive increasing operating and free cashflows from it's businesses as it continues it's growth. Or else, the current assets carried on their balance sheet though looking impressive giving them a net net status and especially made up of a good amount of trade and other receivables, may start to make one worry whether there are any difficulties with collecting cash from these receivables.

Overall, I find Sunningdale Tech still an alright investment for consideration. But based on some of the above potential weak spots such as the weakness of it's cashflows being raised and operating in a constantly challenging environment, I will put it as an alright but not fantastic investment idea.

Valuation wise, if we assume the diluted EPS will continue to grow at a historical CAGR of 25.9% for next 7 years, the fair share price is $9.84. Wait a minute! This is insane! Sunningdale Tech is only trading at $2 now. At $2 now, the market is according a forward CAGR of 1.9% for the diluted EPS of Sunningdale Tech. Either the market is very intelligent or very stupid from what I can see. Perhaps from certain potential weak spots in the businesses such as the volatile cashflows and challenging operating environment as mentioned earlier, the market is discounting Sunningdale Tech.

I also noticed that the diluted EPS of Sunningdale was also volatile as well over the past decade with some years swinging into losses. The significant growth in the diluted EPS came in only from 2015 to 2017. Previous years had much lower diluted EPS registered. Thus, I think it is better to watch out whether Sunningdale Tech can continue to register stable growth in it's diluted EPS. As such, I think I will perhaps follow the market's assumption that Sunningdale Tech will grow it's diluted EPS at CAGR of 1.9% as a conservative measure and see the current traded price of $2 as my final conclusion of it's fair share price. Any upside will have to depend on how Sunningdale Tech can stably grow it's diluted EPS and cashflows over the next 7 years.

Thus, a fair share price of $2 is not too low an estimate (factoring in a margin of safety for the investor) in order to give the company time in future to see whether they can stabilise their growth going forward in these two areas of their diluted EPS and cashflows, minimising their volatilities, and even avoid any potential losses. If they can do that, their share price will certainly have much room to run higher.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Friday, May 25, 2018


YZJ - it has experienced another flushing down last Friday from $1.08 to close 10 cents lower at 98 cents.

This selling down come with super high volume that may suggest Bear is in total control.

It has broken down the support at $1.00, looks rather bearish!

From the weekly chart patterns, looks like it may go further down to revisit 90 cents then 80 cents with extension to 73.5 cents.

Not a call to buy or sell.
Pls dyodd.

17 May 2018: YZJ - After hitting the high of $1.66 on 19 Jan 2018, it has since corrected sharply and continue to go lower.

It has gone down to touch 1.10 on 4 April whereby a rebound has been triggered and rises higher to $1.26 on 20 April.

It has again failed to hold up above $1.20 level and continue to slide down to $1.07 today - 18 May.

From TA point of view, it is rather bearish. Looks like it may go down to $1.00 . Breaking down of $1.00 may head lower to 90 cents level.

Nav of 1.29.
Dividend of 4.5 cents.
Yield is about 4.25%.
PE is about 6.9x.
From FA wise, looks like value is surfacing!

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd., an investment holding company, operates in the shipbuilding activities. The company operates through Shipbuilding, Investments, Trading, and Others segments. It produces a range of commercial vessels, such as containerships, dry bulk carriers, oil tankers, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. The company also engages in the production and processing of steel structures. In addition, it facilitates the sale and export of ships for the ship builder; trades in ship related equipment and shipbuilding related materials/supplies; provides microcredit to enterprises and individuals; invests in held-to-maturity financial assets; and supplies marine equipment and materials. Further, the company is involved in the ship demolition and vessel owning activities. It primarily serves ship owners in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Greece, Norway, Argentina, Turkey, Bulgaria, Poland, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, India, Thailand, Bangladesh, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, etc. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Jingjiang, China.

TianJin Zhong Xin

From TA point of view, it is on a nice uptrend mode chart patterns. The current price of $1.25 is staying well above its 20,50,100 & 200 days moving average, this is rather bullish.
Short term wise, looks like it may likely re-attempt the recent high of $1.29.Crossing over with ease + good volume that may propel to drive the price higher towards 1.35 then 1.40 with extension to 1.46.

 I think it might be good to lock in some profit !

 Not a call to buy or sell.

 Please do your own due diligence.

 NAV of RMB5.82


 Dividend of 2.1 us cents.

 Yield of about 2.24%

 Looking through their past financial nos from 2014 to 2018, we can notice that the Total Revenue is generally declining from S$1513m to S$1222m. Net Income has been rising from S$76m to S$108m.

 Even tough the Total Revenue is lower but Net Income has been rising could be due to lower costs and other gains that contributed to the rise of net income. You may want to look further into their financial report.

 Diluted EPS has also been rising from 6.8 cents to 9.8 cents.

 Total current assets of $904m is more than sufficient to cover its total liabilities of $447m.

 Cash flow from Operations is a little bit erratic. It fluctuates up and down. So is not very consistence.

 The latest 1Q 2018 result shows Net profit rises 31% from RMB133m to RMB171m.

 Tianjin Zhong Xin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells traditional Chinese medicines, western medicines, and healthcare products primarily in the People’s Republic of China. The company is also involved in the manufacture and sale of biological products; wholesale and retail sale of medicines, biochemical pharmaceutical products, and daily use products; and operation of hospitals. In addition, it provides logistics, stocks, equipment installation, and medicine processing services. The company sells medicinal products under its own brand and other brands to wholesalers. Tianjin Zhong Xin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Tianjin, the People’s Republic of China.