Let us take a look at the financial results numbers for past 5 years:
Hi Sporeshare@jeremyowtaip, SATS was an investment idea that I almost wanted to get in last year when it was trading around $4.60+ region. However, wonder if I was unlucky or what, the share price shortly after I had finished my due diligence started to move higher as though it disliked me from buying it. Thus, I held back and did not chase it at higher price. I was in fact hoping to get it even lower at $4.50 back then but since the price did not go lower but instead went higher, I gave up and moved on to other stock ideas.
Back then I took an interest in SATS after hearing my father talked about how my uncle entered this stock some years back when it was still trading about $1 plus to $2 plus region. My uncle held it until now and it is now at $5+ when he at least double to triple his initial capital. Well, this is not something to scream about over the past decade as there were even stocks which performed much better than SATS in their share price growth. But, it is at least better than punting a wrong penny stock and made losses along the way over the past decade.
Thus, I think my uncle who has very limited investment knowledge also knew how to exercise his common sense to pick reasonably good stocks (though may not be one of the best performing stock) at a cheap price and keep holding it until now to reap such a return on his capital turning in a 2 to 2.5 bagger over the past decade. That equates to a similar performance to ETFs or low cost fund which track S&P500 index that also became a 2.5 bagger over the past decade. This is still a somewhat decent showing of SATS share price performance over the past decade.
The revenues of SATS have compounded over the past 9 years at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.78%. The operating income (EBIT) has compounded over the past 9 years at CAGR of 3.2%. The net income has compounded over the past 9 years at CAGR of 3.77%. The EPS has compounded over the past 9 years at CAGR of 3.6%.
The operating cash flows has compounded over the past 9 years at CAGR of 7.97%. The capital expenditure has compounded over the past 9 years at CAGR of 21.73%. The free cash flows has compounded over the past 9 years at CAGR of 5.21%. The dividends per share has grown from 10 cents 9 years ago to now 16 cents.
The returns on assets, returns on equity and returns on invested capital have took a retreat over the past 9 years but have recovered again in the recent few years back to the same levels as 9 years ago.
If we look at the past 9 years performance of SATS in terms of it's profitability in compounded growths in revenues, operating income, net income and EPS, all the CAGRs of the respective metrics point towards one conclusion. This is a steady but slow growth company. Even though it maybe making some progress in it's topline growth, it's bottom line did not follow the same growth rate and instead only turn out a low single digit compounded growth rate.
If we look at the cash flows trend, this is definitely a cash generating machine albeit not a high growth rate in generating cash. In fact, it's compounded growth in capital expenditure is much higher than compounded growth in operating cash flows and free cash flows. It has invested increasingly a lot more money in capital expenditures in order to generate cash inflows. However, if we look at the ratio of free cash flows to capital expenditures over the past 9 years, the amount of free cash flows generated in any one single year was always about twice or more than twice the amount of capital expenditure. This company was generating hell lots of free cash flows even if it increasingly need to spend more in capital expenditure. No wonder the share price has performed reasonably well over the past 9 years even though not something super fantastic to scream about.
It's current 9M17-18 financial results seems to picture a flat results y-o-y with almost everything from revenue, operating income, net income, EPS, operating cash flows being flattish. Maybe that could be partly the concern why it's share price did not went any much higher but instead dropped from it's peak of $5.85 to now $5.00 after the recent 9M results were announced.
Let's look finally at the valuation with this updated set of 9M17-18 results. If we assume that it's EPS will continue to grow at same CAGR of 3.6% and this could be a reasonable CAGR given that SATS really is not a high growth company anymore. In it's recent financial reports, even though they mentioned some possible areas of growth they are looking at and investing in, it does not seem to really boost their growth currently by any large magnitude. Well, at current large revenue level of $1.73 billion, I guess it is not easy for SATS to grow at any meaningful high double digit growth rates anymore going forward. Maybe they could turn in any single year of superb growth. But to sustain at such high double digit growth rates over the longer term may not be an easy feat for them at their current large size and also in their competitive environment. The management also acknowledges that their operating business environment is challenging and meets with cost pressure.
Using my method of estimation, at current share price of $5, the market is according a CAGR of 6.4% over the next business cycle (7 years forward) for the EPS of SATS. If we assume SATS will follow it's historical CAGR of 3.6% for it's EPS, then a fair value for it's share price will be around $3.69.
However, there could be a twist in this. Over recent two years, the EPS has grown faster than over previous period. If SATS can indeed produce a better CAGR on it's EPS perhaps around 5%, then using my method of estimation again, it's fair share price will be $4.35.
Thus, there are two possible fair values now for your consideration.
The more conservative fair value is around $3.69. The more optimistic fair value is around $4.35. In any case, this means that the share price of SATS is currently overvalued and has possible room to fall to it's fair value. This fall in share price could be likely should the full year FY17-18 results ending in Mar 18 remains flattish or see a marginal decrease which is not impossible since the 9M17-18 results are already flattish. Let's see whether SATS FY17-18 results to be announced in another about two months time will surprise on the upside or confirm my thinking that it could be a flattish year for them in their performance.
The more conservative fair value is around $3.69. The more optimistic fair value is around $4.35. In any case, this means that the share price of SATS is currently overvalued and has possible room to fall to it's fair value. This fall in share price could be likely should the full year FY17-18 results ending in Mar 18 remains flattish or see a marginal decrease which is not impossible since the 9M17-18 results are already flattish. Let's see whether SATS FY17-18 results to be announced in another about two months time will surprise on the upside or confirm my thinking that it could be a flattish year for them in their performance.
theintelligentinvestor
Reply to @jeremyowtaip : Great analysis! I have similar view that the topline is growing faster than the bottom line, like most instances, is because the business needs higher Capex to have incremental growth. I prefer the lower capex to grow type of businesses, but they are hard to find and also not cheap.
But having said that, I think overall the earnings power is still there, they have a nice moat around their business, and generating good earnings and cash flow. A 3.6% growth will mean doubling the business every 20 years. For me I don’t have problem with low growth businesses, I have some stocks that are also in the same moderate range of 3-5%. What is left is the price, at PE 21, it is on the overvalued side. But if I have bought this like your uncle at $2, I will likely keep holding it, as fundamentally it is still the same, only thing has changed is the price.
Company bought back share:
SATS did a series of share buy backs recently from mid-Feb to now. I noticed their prices they bought ranged from $4.99 to $5.20. The funny thing and irony is that you posted your comment just after they announced up till their latest share buy backs in this recent series of share buy backs. The management think their share price is cheap to have done share buy backs at current prices while we were discussing that the current share price is overvalued. I will still stand by my view that their share price is currently overvalued. What an irony here! Haha!
Ya loh! Not sure why they buy back share ! May be to support the share price from going lower ..
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- about 2 hours ago
theintelligentinvestor
Reply to @jeremyowtaip : I wish companies here would explain the rational when they do share buyback. At PB of 4 and PE of 21, buying back doesn’t looked to be adding value to shareholders.
Reply to @jeremyowtaip : TQ for your detail analysis ! You are really dive deep into nitty gritty items . Like your style of analyzing the company data and computing the fair value . I have worked out the fair value using discounted EPS ,EPS CAGR 9.17%,which Is about $2.23( has even factored additional discount ) . The fair value using Ops cash flow is about $3.52 , Cashflow growth rate of 3.39%. The current price of $5.00 is still expensive.IthinkHave to wait for price to correct lower .
jeremyowtaip
have a large % deemed interest etc. There are many more favourables going for it. It's share price may still trade with some volatility but may not sustain a downtrend too much.Tough case for it's share price to drop also with this additional joint venture news now. But if Mr Bear comes, then it will scare the sxxx out of investors and dampen their mood to trigger a sell down in a bear market to possibly reach it's fair price.
jeremyowtaip
Reply to @theintelligentinvestor : @clim @Sporeshare
I have a hunch the share buy backs could be for some share restriction plan which is similar to employee share option to reward certain employees for their contribution to the company. That's why the number of outstanding shares has grown gradually through the past decade even with share buy backs because the shares were not cancelled and instead went towards their share restriction plan to reward their employees. If share buy backs done during cheap or fair share prices, then still ok. But if done on overvalued prices, I think this will not be benefitting for shareholders even if it benefits their employees of the company. Thus, such employee share options or any form of share options for employees must be done in a sensible manner. Or else, it will like TII said either does not value add or worse erode shareholder value over time.. It seems that SATS is not a good candidate to do shorting on based on a few factors I mentioned. The various favourable factors I observed are good management, low leverage, quality cash flows and strong liquidity, favourable secular industry favouring long term growth even if growth is slow, strong institutional backing in THhave a large % deemed interest etc. There are many more favourables going for it. It's share price may still trade with some volatility but may not sustain a downtrend too much.Tough case for it's share price to drop also with this additional joint venture news now. But if Mr Bear comes, then it will scare the sxxx out of investors and dampen their mood to trigger a sell down in a bear market to possibly reach it's fair price.
