SingTel

SingTel after touching the low of $3.02 it has managed to stage a strong rebound and rises higher to close well at $3.16 level. Couple with high volume and the current price of 3.16 has managed to reclaimed its 20 days moving average at about $3.14 , this is rather positive.

MACD & Stoch is rising up nicely and may likely provide further indication that the share price may continue to rise further.

Short term wise, I may likely follow-through with another Gap up to take it above 3.20 then 3.30 with extension to 3.50 level.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.


28th June 2018

Looks like we may see a replay of the same chart patterns being happened in 2012.
The price was being pushed down near closing yesterday to close lower than previous low of 3.10.

We may likely see the price moving up to reclaim $3.10 level and rises higher from the current level.
Yield is getting attractive now!
Please dyodd.


Are you loosing sleep with your SingTel invested share price keep heading lower?
The whole telco industry sector has been overly punished with the incoming of the 4th operator that may begin its operation on Dec 2018.

I think market has overly reacted and the price has been driven into oversold territories.

I think wise income investor may view this as a golden opportunity to slowly accumulate.

Plus point:

I think SingTel has a stronger balance sheet, stronger free cash flow and it pays out a fraction of its earnings as dividends to shareholders.

If the price on a good investment goes lower, I think it is presenting a good value .

Current price trading at $3.12 , Yield at 5.6% base on annual dividend of 17.5 cents. 

It is looking rather attractive..

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

23rd May 2018
SingTel - Chart wise, it is rather weak and may likely continue to trend lower.
The current price of $3.34 is staying below its 20,50,100 & 200 days moving average. This is rather bearish.

Short term wise, I think it may likely move down to retest the recent low of 3.30.


Breaking down of 3.30 with high volume that would be super bearish and may likely see it slide further down towards 3.19 with extension to 3.08.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.



18 May 2018 - long time didn't see company buying back share ! Looks positive!

Today saw the company bought back 294000+ share between $3.42 to $3.43.

http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAnnouncement_Content&B=AnnouncementToday&F=H1UR0B3BPABL4KB0&H=b2e5d5b80b08f4cc5d2922ce03a9263e1a932c75229c687d33fd403eb23c2132


Singtel posts record full-year earnings on NetLink Trust divestment and strong core business 

Financial year ended 31 March 2018





 Record net profit of S$5.45 billion, including divestment gains from NetLink Trust  Operating revenue up 5% to S$17.53 billion

 Strong core and digital businesses drive growth





 Free cash flow up 18% to S$3.61 billion on strong operating cash flow

 Q4 revenue stable and net profit down 19% on weaker associates’ earnings

 Proposed final dividend per share of 10.7 cents; total dividend per share of 17.5 cents

DIVIDENDS

The Board is recommending a final ordinary dividend per share of 10.7 cents, bringing the total ordinary dividend per share for the year to 17.5 cents, representing a payout of approximately S$2.86 billion.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Group expects to maintain its ordinary dividends of 17.5 cents per share for the next two financial years and thereafter, will revert to the payout of between 60% and 75% of underlying net profit.

“These results reflect the strong execution of our digital transformation strategy in both our core and new digital businesses. Optus gained market share in Australia underscoring its network and content strategy while our ICT and digital businesses now account for 24% of revenue, with digital marketing arm Amobee achieving growth and positive EBITDA for the year,” said Ms Chua Sock Koong, Singtel Group CEO. “We remain focused on what is important to both our consumer and enterprise customers – premium mobile networks, secure high-speed connectivity, innovative products and services, and excellent customer service. Besides strengthening our competitiveness, this allows us to deliver even greater value to customers.”





 Across the region, all of the Group’s regional associates continued to drive growth in data. However, Airtel’s results were impacted by intense competition with very aggressive pricing led by a new player and further aggravated by mandated cuts in mobile termination rates in India. This is despite recording its highest quarterly net customer adds and strong data usage growth in India, and continued positive growth momentum in Africa. Last month, Airtel announced the merger of Indus Towers and Bharti Infratel to create the largest tower company in the world outside of China, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. Telkomsel’s earnings were impacted by the decline in legacy services and heightened price competition particularly during the SIM card registration implementation. Profit contributions from AIS grew on revenue improvement and cost management. Globe also delivered strong earnings growth due to robust data revenue growth and cost control.

Competition remains intense in India but the right regulatory policies and sector consolidation should lead to a more stable market structure in the mid term. In Indonesia, Telkomsel Singapore Telecommunications Limited 2 of 8 Company registration number: 199201624D continues to expand its network to create significant capacity and grow its digital business.

 To forge new areas of growth, we are accelerating collaborations with our regional associates to build an ecosystem of digital services by leveraging the Group’s strengths and customer base across 21 countries.” Recently announced initiatives include a cross-border payments service to connect the Group’s telco wallets in Asia, and strategic partnerships in the areas of e-payments, e-sports and sports content. The Group’s cash position remains strong.

Free cash flow for the full year rose 18% to S$3.61 billion, and for the quarter grew 5% to S$800 million.





GROUP CONSUMER

 In Australia, Optus gained market share as it successfully differentiated itself through its network and content strategy. For the full year, it added a total of 384,000 new mobile customers and 225,000 new NBN broadband customers.

Revenue grew 3% in the quarter as higher equipment sales and strong customer growth offset lower NBN migration revenues due to NBN’s temporary suspension order while EBITDA declined 5%. Excluding NBN migration revenues, revenue would have grown 6% and EBITDA increased 3%. Mobile service revenue grew 1%, impacted by higher service credits. Postpaid ARPU was affected by an increased mix of SIM-only plans, higher device repayment credits and data price competition. Mass market fixed revenues excluding NBN migration revenues increased 6%.

In Singapore, for the quarter, consumer revenue was down 4% and EBITDA declined 14%. Mobile communications revenue was impacted by voice to data substitution, declines in roaming services and a higher mix of SIM-only plans.

The launch of premium handsets presented an opportunity to increase customer recontracting numbers, strengthen customer relationships and reduce churn. Around 18% of new and recontracting postpaid customers signed up for SIM-only plans during the quarter. Home revenues declined with the cessation of Premier League sublicensing and lower fixed voice usage but was partially mitigated by continued growth in broadband services.

Singtel relaunched its flagship store at Comcentre with state-of-the-art features and integration of online-offline channels to give customers greater ease of use.





In the content space, Group Consumer scored broadcasting rights for all the 2018 FIFA World Cup matches in Singapore and Australia. Optus also secured exclusive Premier League rights for three more seasons, solidifying its position as a leading multi-media entertainment company.

GROUP ENTERPRISE

 Group Enterprise revenue was stable for the quarter as growth in ICT revenues offset the continued erosion of the carriage business. ICT services was boosted by strong contributions from cyber security and cloud services.

Cyber security revenue rose 16% on the back of strong growth in managed security services and momentum in the Asia Pacific region.

In Australia, Optus Business maintained its revenue momentum at 5% growth this quarter, driven by sustained growth in mobile revenue and major ICT contract wins.

GROUP DIGITAL LIFE 

Group Digital Life continued to scale and make progress towards profitability. Revenue grew 54%1 for the quarter with EBITDA at breakeven, lifted by one-off content cost credit and government grants.





In my opinion, SingTel has again shown it ability to grow its business and total revenue for the Full Year rises 4.9% to 17,532m.

Underlying Net profit is down 7.8% ( excluding divestment gains) was 3,544m.

Underlying Net profit if included divestment gain of 1,908m , Up 42.2% to 5,451m.

What an outstanding result.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

Super oversold rally counter

UOL : today price is up 24 cents to $7.75. price shoot up 3.2% + high volume, this could be an indication of a trend reversal.
Short term wise, seems rather bullish!

It may likely continue to head higher!

Company Description

UOL Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in property development and management, property investments, and hotel businesses. Its property development projects include residential units, office towers and shopping malls, and hotels and serviced suites. The company also owns and/or manages approximately 30 hotels under the Pan Pacific and PARKROYAL names in Asia, Oceania, and North America with approximately 10,000 rooms in its portfolio. In addition, it is involved in the rental of serviced suites, commercial offices, and retail malls; treasury services business; management of serviced suites; operation of restaurants; and management and operation of health and beauty retreats and facilities. Further, the company engages in the retail of computer hardware and software; property trading business; management and licensing of trademarks; retail management consultancy services business; and provision of information technology related products and services. UOL Group Limited has operations in Singapore, Australia, Vietnam, Malaysia, the People’s Republic of China, Myanmar, and the United Kingdom. The company was formerly known as United Overseas Land Limited and changed its name to UOL Group Limited in 2006. UOL Group Limited was founded in 1963 and is based in Singapore.

Similar action/patterns is also being happening for Wing Tai another property counter.

A super oversold rally!

Price is up 5 cents today to close above the psychology level of $2.00 at $2.03.

Short term wise, it may likely move up to test $2.10 and above .

pany Description

Wing Tai Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in property development, property investment, and retailing businesses in Singapore, Malaysia, the People’s Republic of China, and Australia. The company develops residential and commercial properties; and invests in and manages serviced residences under the Lanson Place brand name, as well as manages a boutique hotel in Hong Kong. It is also involved in the manufacture and retail of textile garments; the provision of consultancy and advisory services; and project management and property maintenance activities, as well as in the fund management business. As of June 30, 2017, the company operated 206 stores. Wing Tai Holdings Limited was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Singapore.

YZJ sGD

Looks like we have a Bullish pin bar appeared on the chart today , seems rather bullish to me.

It may well be a reversal is going to be played out soon!

I would monitor to watch for this confirmation to be carried out.

If it is able to rises and move up to revisit 96.5 cents, I think high chance reversal is here.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.


1st July:
A typical short rebound that is unable to hold as it has again came falling down after touching above $1.00.
Current price of 90.5 cents is looking rather shaky and may likely move down to retest 89 cents.

Breaking down would be super Bearish and may likely see the price going further down towards 80 with extension to 75.

Not a call to buy or sell.
Pls dyodd.

8th June 2018
A nice rebound has taken place after hitting the low of 90 cents and rises to touch $1.04.
It has since taking a breather and it may likely retest the critical level at 1.00.

Breaking down of $1.00 would be rather bearish and may likely see further selling down pressure.
Immediate resistance is at 1.04 and the next resistance level is at 1.08.
The support would be at 95.5 follow-by 90 cents.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.



30 May 2018

Dow jumps more than 300 points after banks rebound; small caps hit new record.

The company bought back 5m share at 90-91.5 cents, looks like we may see a strong rebound today especially with Dow gaining 300+ points overnight.

• The Dow Jones industrial average rose more than 300 points, with Boeing, Chevron and Home Depot leading the blue-chip stocks higher. The Russell 2000 hit a new high.
• The euro recovers much of its previous losses with a 1.1 percent climb against the greenback to $1.166.
• An uptick in rates push the big banks upward, with Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Wells Fargo all finishing up more than 1 percent.
• Crude oil futures settled higher Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up $1.48, or 2.22 percent. (Cnbc.com)

Chart wise, we have witnessed the price Gap down from 95 cents to touch the low of 90 cents . It has manage to bounce-off from this level and closed higher at 92.5 cents .



Looks like we are seeing a hammer shape candlestick bar is appearing on the chart, seem like bull is able to take control of the situation.

Short term wise, we may likely see a reversal play taking place it it is able to overcome 97.5 cents and rises back to $1.00 and above .

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

NAV of $1.29.
Dividend of 4.5 cents

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd., an investment holding company, operates in the shipbuilding activities. The company operates through Shipbuilding, Investments, Trading, and Others segments. It produces a range of commercial vessels, such as containerships, dry bulk carriers, oil tankers, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. The company also engages in the production and processing of steel structures. In addition, it facilitates the sale and export of ships for the ship builder; trades in ship related equipment and shipbuilding related materials/supplies; provides microcredit to enterprises and individuals; invests in held-to-maturity financial assets; and supplies marine equipment and materials. Further, the company is involved in the ship demolition and vessel owning activities. It primarily serves ship owners in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Greece, Norway, Argentina, Turkey, Bulgaria, Poland, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, India, Thailand, Bangladesh, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, etc. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Jingjiang, China.

Safe Haven Bond

This month offer is the highest for 1st year interest at 1.78%.
All Huat together!

2nd year interest 2.16%. looks like it is getting higher, a good form of saving for those preferred safe and secure saving.

Offer size 250m.
Closing date 26th July 2018 9pm.

The Singapore Saving Bond : The monthly issuance size of the SSB Programme has been increased to $250m from this month .

 GX 180070N : available for applying from 1st June 9am to 26 th June before 9pm.

 Result will be made known after 27th June .

 Applicant may apply via Internet banking from the 3 local banks such as DBS,Uob & OCBC .

 First year interest is 1.72% & 10 year interest is about 3.41%. You may refer to the table below ;

 Each Savings Bond has a term of 10 years and pays interest every 6 months. Savings Bonds cannot be traded like conventional bonds or shares. Interest income is exempt from tax. Only individuals above 18 years old can apply.

 Savings Bonds are fully backed by the Singapore Government. And because the bonds can always be redeemed for the full amount invested, investors are protected against capital losses when interest rates change.

 This makes them one of the safest possible investments for individuals to hold.

 Save up to 10 years, and earn interest that “steps up” or increases over time. Hold your Savings Bond for the full 10 years and receive an average interest per year that matches the return from 10-year Singapore Government Securities yields, which has generally been between 2%-3%. Flexible : Or, choose to exit your investment in any given month, with no penalties.

There is no need to decide on a specific investment period at the start.

Before you Apply: You will need: A bank account with DBS/POSB, OCBC or UOB. Visit any of the three local banks’ branches in Singapore to open a bank account.

 An individual CDP Securities account linked to any of your bank accounts through direct crediting service (DCS). CDP is the custodian for Savings Bonds and will process applications, interest payments and redemptions. Visit CDP's webpage for information on opening your CDP Securities account.

 $2 transaction fee A non-refundable transaction fee will be charged by the bank for each application request.

After you have Apply: MAS will allot the new Savings Bond among applicants on the 3rd last business day of the month (called the "Allotment Day")You will receive the first interest payment 6 months after the bond is issued. Interest will be automatically paid into the bank account that is linked to your CDP account.

 The application results will be available on the Announcements page after 3.00pm on Allotment Day. Should the total amount of applications exceed the amount on offer in a particular month, you may not get the full amount you applied for (why not?). The excess cash will be refunded to you by the end of the 2nd last business day of the month.

Savings Bonds will be issued on the 1st business day of the following month. You will be notified by CDP via mail of the amount of Savings Bonds allotted to you. You can also check your holdings online through the CDP Internet service or by calling CDP at 6535-7511.

 Received your interest : You will receive the first interest payment 6 months after the bond is issued. Interest will be automatically paid into the bank account that is linked to your CDP account. Interest will be paid every six months after that, on the 1st business day of the month. The interest payments will be reflected in your CDP statements. When your bond matures Each Savings Bond has a term of ten years. At the end of ten years, your principal and the last interest payment will be automatically credited to your DCS bank account.

You do not need to take any action, and the $2 transaction fee is not applicable in this instance. Redeeming early You can redeem your Savings Bonds in any given month before the bond matures, with no penalty for exiting your investment early. To redeem your bond: Submit your redemption requests through the DBS/POSB, OCBC or UOB ATMs, or Internet Banking portals. Redeem in multiples of $500 up to the amount you have invested for each bond. You can redeem more than one bond per month. A $2 transaction fee will apply for each redemption request. Please note that you will not be able to amend or cancel submitted redemption requests.

The redemption period opens at 6pm on the 1st business day of each month and closes at 9pm on the 4th last business day of the month. Redemption proceeds will be paid by the end of the 2nd business day of the following month. Will I receive any interest?  Savings Bonds pay interest every 6 months.

If you redeem your bond when there is a scheduled interest payment, you will receive the scheduled interest together with your redemption amount. If you redeem before the scheduled interest is paid, you will receive a pro-rated amount, called the accrued interest, which is the interest you have earned but have not been paid.

Are you Greedy or Fearful

Wilmar - $3.04! Wow! Value is appearing. NAV of $3.40. Only those who had faith and patiently waiting for tide ti turn may reap the reward! Pls dyodd.

Holding up well within the range of 3.20 to 3.26 . Looks like it may likely re-captured $3.28 . Breaking out of $3.28 with ease + good volume that may propel to drive the price higher towards $3.30 then $3.40.


I think the dir has bought back share again at $3.20 per share .

http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAnnouncement_Content&B=AnnouncementLast12Months&F=WGMX1YIGZQV8TT6W&H=fa52113b6aac6e348f976b8f1644381902142a5ff2c3c7c0c6d9bcaf2d53b2fc


Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.




18 May 2018 - Wil dir has been buying up share after the released of their first quarter result!

He has snapped up share raning from $3.11 to $3.15.



Without this support ,price may have corrected lower.

• 
  

It has now managed to recover and fill up the Gap at $3.21.
Yesterday closed well at $3.23, looks rather bullish!



It may move up to retest $3.28 soon!

Do take note that it's NAV is about $3.30-$3.40.



Wilmar Intl Went up to touch the high of $3.27 but was being sold down end of the day to close at $3.21 . Down 4 cents from $3.25 yesterday closing price.

It seems like some insider news being leaked prior to result was released after trading hours.

1Q 2018 result, Total revenue was up 5.7% to 11.116m.Net profit was down 37.2 % to US183.4m , EPS of 3.2 (US) due to lower palm oil price and sugar ops loss.

Ops cash flow was healthy generating US1.83m.

NAV of $3.40.

Not a call to buy or sell.

 Wilmar - touch $3.26 again. Looks rather bullish! Breaking out with ease may sail smoothly towards $3.30.

MACD is rising that may likely provide further indication that the share price may likely continue to trend higher.

Price is hovering above the SMA lines. High chance for a nice breaking out moment that may take the price higher to 3.30 and $3.40 and above.

Not a call to buy or sell.
please do your own due diligence.




Wilmar Intl - NAV $3.304, Rolling EPS 0.306, PE 13.721.

Together with Interim dividend of 3 cents. Total dividend is 10 cents. Yield is 3.2% at $3.12 per share. The recent share buying back by company director of 2.44m share at $3.103 per share & 79300 share at $3.18 per share may likely be a boost of confidence.. I have jeep small lots at $3.12 today.


.I am buying for the future growth and may be the listing of their China ipo.. dyodd. Reply to @Sporeshare : Ah.....This is the golden big question! If Wilmar is really pushing for an IPO of their China operations in Shanghai exchange, I think can look at other similar commodity giants that are already listed in Shanghai exchange to see where are they trading now in their price to earnings multiple. That will give us a good gauge what types of multiples we are potentially looking at. Surely, we cannot expect Wilmar to list their China operations at too low a gap from their peer competitors on Shanghai exchange. If that is the case, why still push for IPO listing if the valuation it would fetch is not attractive at all? If want to unlock value by the IPO, might as well unlock it well.

 I attached an article from TheEdgeSingapore which an analyst pegs a target price of $4.10 based on an attractive valuation now, strong crushing margins so far in FY18 and the anticipated listing of its China unit. You can read through the article to see the rationale put forth by the analyst. In any case, we are not trying to be precise in forecasting our target price.

 The analyst puts forth a possible listing of the China unit at up to 23 P/E ratio on the Shanghai exchange. Based on good common sense and my previous sharing, Wilmar's share price definitely has all the good catalysts as we can see currently going for it to reach a higher price level. My previous estimated fair price of $3.18 is based on a worst case scenario. Unless we think Wilmar will eventually fail in all accounts of the prospected catalysts in having weaker overall performance this year and anticipated listing of it's China unit falls through, then worst case scenario may pan out. Thus, the downside as I can see on probability terms is low while upside has high probability of happening. Therefore, if you ask me, is $4 you quoted likely to reach in future? My answer is even if not reaching $4, I think the probability of the share price rising higher from current level in view of all these potential future catalysts is surely there. How about a $3.60 price in future based on my "anyhow" guess? I think that will be already at least a good perk of 11.5% share price gain if it really happens by this year end. $4.10 will be even more "shiok" with a potential return of 26.9% if it really happens within one year's time based on the analyst's target price in this article by

TheEdgeSingapore! I think it is a case of making either more or lesser returns from this bet here on Wilmar. As long as one does not chase at higher price if it should chiong but instead has already accumulated cheap in advance, one should be falling into the case of making more or lesser returns on this bet hopefully within one year's time frame. https://www.theedgesingapore.com/wilmar-kept-add-valuations-strong-crushing-margins-and-upcoming-listing-china-unit Wilmar International. The overall feel I have of this large agricultural international group is that it already has extensive and deep degree of reach in it's agricultural and related businesses in terms of many geographical regions they are in (about 50 countries as reported on their website with about 500 manufacturing plants worldwide) and also the entire value chain they are serving from upstream plantation and harvesting to mid stream processing and refining to downstream distribution and sales of their final products to consumers. On a one decade time frame, Wilmar International has compounded it's revenues at a CAGR of 10.3% which is respectable and not surprising considering how significant this group has grown over the years. It's operating income has compounded at a CAGR of 8.1% over the past decade. It's net income has compounded at a CAGR of 7.7% over the past decade. It's EPS has compounded at a CAGR of 4.1% over the past decade. Again, this looks like a moderate to slow grower over the past decade just slightly better than SATS that we looked at previously in terms of the growth in it's profitability. If we look at their past 5 years trend for the revenue, operating income, net income and EPS, there was a dip in all these metrics after FY12 onwards which only recovered in their FY17 results near to FY12 levels.

 qUOTE : I checked up the palm oil historical prices and indeed it confirmed my thinking that this dip over the past 5 years which only recovered recently was probably correlated to the drop in palm oil price over the past 5 years. Currently, palm oil price has recovered from the lows but still it is now only two-thirds of the last peak price reached in 2012. The big question is whether the palm oil price will continue to recover towards the last peak price reached in 2012 going forward or continue to hold around current price and do a ding-dong in price, sometimes up and sometimes down but no clear up direction for the next few years? This I do not know as I think only insiders of the palm oil industry will know the dynamic factors of global supply and demand affecting palm oil prices. I consider this as outside my circle of competence. But looking at palm oil historical prices, it sure looked quite volatile to me and hard to grasp.{ jeremyowtaip} As such, the various trend on their returns on assets (ROA), returns on equity (ROE) and returns on invested capital have also dipped over the past 5 years and have almost recovered in the latest set of FY17 results to close to same returns as FY12. However, the various returns are still single digits returns in %. For example in FY17, ROA is now around 3% while ROE is around 7.6%. If we stretch further backwards to compare their current returns against one decade ago which the various returns were higher in FY07 of ROA around 6.7% while ROE was around 13.8%, we can clearly see that Wilmar is now not a high return beast as it used to be a decade ago. It seems that it is not easy to attain the same returns as before anymore now that Wilmar has outgrown so much that at it's current size it cannot generate the same returns on assets and shareholder equity as before. Now again, the big question is how will the various returns going forward in future years be like? Will it remain around same level as now or become lower? Size is one thing which makes it increasingly difficult to generate the same level of returns. What if they can grow their revenue and profits further in future years should palm oil prices recover? Maybe there could be a chance to improve their returns though going back to double digits returns likely will be difficult.

This would mean they have to increase their current net profits by another approximately 120% at current size of total assets for example to go back to previous decade ago record of ROA. A jump in 120% increase in net profits at current level of USD 1.22 billion for WIlmar next year based on core businesses and not through some non-recurring disposal of assets? One must be joking to ask the dog to jump over the high wall! The financial leverage of Wilmar has been steady over the years managing their debts level and balance sheet well. Cash flows wise though can be volatile seems to still generate free cash flows at least enough to pay a dividends which has grown over the past decade. Their CAGR for EPS over the past 5 years has been about 0% even though 10 years CAGR was 4.1%. I will factor in a best case scenario and a worst case scenario in estimating their fare share price value taking into account all the above mentioned details of this comment. If we make a best case scenario of Wilmar continuing to grow it's current EPS at CAGR of 4.1% going forward, then using my method of estimation, their fare share price will be $4.25. However, if we make a worst case scenario of a CAGR of 2% on their EPS going forward for next business cycle (7 years), then their fair share price will be $3.18. This is mind-blowing! It all depends on the performance of Wilmar going forward. If they can parallel their historical compounded growth rates on their EPS, then it will be a bonus to buy their shares now at cheap cheap share price! However, should they grow at a lower forward CAGR about somewhere half in % terms on their EPS, then we are exactly getting Wilmar now at fair value $3.18 and it will not be cheap now to buy! This really requires an investor's forward opinion on how Wilmar will perform for next 7 years cycle to decide whether to put in his or her stake at current price. Will this be a value buy or value trap? Hmm Wilmar International has since diversified their commodity businesses over the years into business segments including tropical oils, oilseeds and grains, sugar and biofuels and other investment businesses. This horizontal diversification and vertical integration tapping at all levels of the value chain has allowed Wilmar to grow to it's current humongous size despite being in a general low profit margin agricultural commodity businesses. I forgot to mention another important piece of bright spot for Wilmar! I read up in it's most recent financial report that they are considering looking at an IPO listing of their China rice, flour and related consumer products operations in China.


http://sbr.com.sg/agribusiness/news/wilmar-eyes-china-expansion But things are still in the early stage of assessment. If that were to happen, imagine the craze of investors rushing in for this potential spin-off of their China businesses which will unlock value for shareholders. Then, buying at current share price is now cheap if we factor in this potential unlocking of value from such a future proposition which will increase their profits and returns by some substantial jump if that were to happen some time down the road. It may happen as early as 2019 based on a write-up by Singapore Business Review. Hmm....I am now starting to get somewhat interested after knowing this. Some info on Shree Renuka Sugars I found out. It is the largest raw sugar producer in India and Brazil. As what the others have pointed out, the management was too aggressive in their overseas expansion bet in South America which didn't go well chalking up huge debts. This is because after year 2012, the sugar prices dropped from their peak reached and also correlated to Shree Renuka's operating losses from 2013 to now as sugar prices remain lower and now only recovered to two-third of the peak price reached in 2012. Wilmar has this chance to acquire a controlling stake in Shree Renuka Sugars because the latter chalked up so much debts from their aggressive expansion to South America market which didn't pan out well. Thus, during this current debt restructuring exercise, Wilmar can take this opportunity to acquire a controlling stake in the equity of India and Brazil largest raw sugar producer Shree Renuka Sugars. quote :I will need to examine the financial strength of Wilmar whether they can take on this acquisition without risking themselves too much. But, the offer to acquire a controlling stake in Shree Renuka Sugars by itself sounds to be a wonderful move. If sugar prices should continue to recover to previous peaks in 2012 and earlier, Shree Renuka Sugars may be able to return to better profitability again. The return on invested capital for Shree Renuka Sugars before they went downhill in 2013 are still good. If Wilmar after acquiring Shree Renuka Sugars can turnaround this largest sugar producer in India and Brazil successfully, it will be very good for Wilmar to further expand their sugar business significantly.

PS: Shall investigate whether Wilmar is strong enough to take on this acquisition without stressing their balance sheet too much. Get back to you again. I did an estimation on the required amount for Wilmar to make the acquisition of shares in Shree Renuka Sugars based on regulations of Securities and Exchange Board of India after Wilmar converted it's convertible preference shares to common equity shares and triggered the regulations of the exchange to make an offer to acquire up to 26% of the emerging share capital of Shree Renuka Sugars. The cash outlay needed to acquire up to 26% of the emerging share capital of Shree Renuka Sugars is approximately USD 124 million. Wilmar has about USD 2.96 billion in cash and equivalents plus other bank deposits. It's current ratio stands at around 1.15 based on FY17 financial report. This acquisition requires very small cash outlay for Wilmar as compared to the cash and bank deposits it now has. However, after the acquisition of a controlling stake in Shree Renuka Sugars has been completed, I am not sure how much remaining debts of Shree Renuka Sugars Wilmar will carry as some of the debts owed to the lenders have been converted to equity in Shree Renuka Sugars. I checked up Shree Renuka Sugars balance sheet as at Sep 17. They carried a total of about USD 1 billion worth of total liabilties on their balance sheet. With some of the borrowings of Shree Renuka Sugars converted to equity, the total liabilities should be lesser than this figure. Thus, with Wilmar's existing USD 2.96 billion in cash and equivalents plus bank deposits and if we consider Wilmar's current assets of total about USD 22.6 billion, Wilmar definitely has much more than enough resources to cover the liabilities of Shree Renuka Sugars even after Wilmar completes this acquisition of a controlling stake in it.


 There is no concern at all in acquiring a controlling stake in Shree Renuka Sugars for Wilmar. Instead, Wilmar would have gotten this India and Brazil largest raw sugar producer under it's wings.(jeremyowtaip) But having said that, those few stocks we discussed about like Wilmar and Thai Beverage are good stocks to hold for the longer term as there are future potential catalysts in them. The potential listing of China operations for Wilmar which will unlock value for shareholders and may re-rate share price higher. The future long term contributions to earnings and returns from the new acquisitions for Thai Beverage will outpace the cost of their initial investment. The market position of Thai Beverage has strengthened as a leader in this Southeast Asia region with these acquisitions. The fair share price of Thai Beverage I cannot determine at the moment. But, in future the direction of the share price can only go one way which is up as the new acquisitions start to increase the overall profitability and cash flows further while the debts get slowly reduced over time. For SATS, it is a steady slow grower. Just need a bear market to grab it cheap at fair value or lower than fair value and see the price will bounce back and trade higher than fair value due to so many favourables surrounding it which may continue for a very long number of years ahead.

YZJ Ship Bldg

A typical short rebound that is unable to hold as it has again came falling down after touching above $1.00.
Current price of 90.5 cents is looking rather shaky and may likely move down to retest 89 cents.

Breaking down would be super Bearish and may likely see the price going further down towards 80 with extension to 75.

Not a call to buy or sell.
Pls dyodd.

8th June 2018
A nice rebound has taken place after hitting the low of 90 cents and rises to touch $1.04.
It has since taking a breather and it may likely retest the critical level at 1.00.

Breaking down of $1.00 would be rather bearish and may likely see further selling down pressure.
Immediate resistance is at 1.04 and the next resistance level is at 1.08.
The support would be at 95.5 follow-by 90 cents.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.



30 May 2018

Dow jumps more than 300 points after banks rebound; small caps hit new record.

The company bought back 5m share at 90-91.5 cents, looks like we may see a strong rebound today especially with Dow gaining 300+ points overnight.

• The Dow Jones industrial average rose more than 300 points, with Boeing, Chevron and Home Depot leading the blue-chip stocks higher. The Russell 2000 hit a new high.
• The euro recovers much of its previous losses with a 1.1 percent climb against the greenback to $1.166.
• An uptick in rates push the big banks upward, with Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Wells Fargo all finishing up more than 1 percent.
• Crude oil futures settled higher Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) up $1.48, or 2.22 percent. (Cnbc.com)

Chart wise, we have witnessed the price Gap down from 95 cents to touch the low of 90 cents . It has manage to bounce-off from this level and closed higher at 92.5 cents .



Looks like we are seeing a hammer shape candlestick bar is appearing on the chart, seem like bull is able to take control of the situation.

Short term wise, we may likely see a reversal play taking place it it is able to overcome 97.5 cents and rises back to $1.00 and above .

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

NAV of $1.29.
Dividend of 4.5 cents

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd., an investment holding company, operates in the shipbuilding activities. The company operates through Shipbuilding, Investments, Trading, and Others segments. It produces a range of commercial vessels, such as containerships, dry bulk carriers, oil tankers, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. The company also engages in the production and processing of steel structures. In addition, it facilitates the sale and export of ships for the ship builder; trades in ship related equipment and shipbuilding related materials/supplies; provides microcredit to enterprises and individuals; invests in held-to-maturity financial assets; and supplies marine equipment and materials. Further, the company is involved in the ship demolition and vessel owning activities. It primarily serves ship owners in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Greece, Norway, Argentina, Turkey, Bulgaria, Poland, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, India, Thailand, Bangladesh, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, etc. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Jingjiang, China.

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