DOW Jones index

4th May 2018 - Very luck for Dow to bounce-off after hitting below the 200 days moving average.
I think market may get a lifting today especially STI indexes.

As reflected on the chart, Dow went all the way down to touch 23531 before Bull gaining strength to take control of the Bull and close above it 200 days MA which is around 23740 level .
It is still not out of the wood yet. It might be good to monitor and hopefully it doesn't breakdown the 23316 level ( previous low) of which it would be super bearish.

Tech/Manufacturing counter such as Venture , Hi-p, AEM , Valuetronics & Sunningdale Tech etc may likely see a rebound.
I think it might be a good opportunity for those who want to exit /take profit/ cut loss .

Please do your own due diligence.

The Dow Jones industrial average edged out a 5.17-point gain to finish at 23,930.15 by the closing bell after falling nearly 400 points in morning trading. The S&P 500 closed down 0.23 percent to close at 2,629.73 after dropping as much as 1.6 percent. Both indexes also dipped below their 200-day moving averages, but were back above those levels by the end of the session.

The Nasdaq composite fell 0.18 percent after dropping more than 1 percent, ending the day at 7,088.15. The Nasdaq pared losses later in the day was buoyed by a rebound in Amazon and Apple shares as well as a 0.6 percent gain in software giant Microsoft. Enterprise technology company Cisco added 1.3 percent.

"The market got very cheap and buyers just came in," said Jeremy Klein, chief market strategist at FBN Securities. "I mean you'll still seeing sectors like banks lag ... [but] industrials had a really nice bounce. A stock like Boeing, which has been really dragging lately, found a nice bid this morning." ( cnbc.com)

DBS

DBS - 3rd May 2018 Is going Ex-dividend today .

Final dividend of 60 cents + special dividend of 50 cents. Total $1.10.

The price may gap down from $30.63 to $29.53.

 Looking at the chart, yesterday it has formed a wide bearish bar and is almost covering/engulfing the previous candlestick, this is rather bearish. Plus today is the ex-dividend date, we may see a drastic selling down towards $29.00 then $28.90 which is also its 20 days Moving average.

 Breaking down of $28.90 level, next we may be seeing it slide further down towards $28.50 level which is also coincide with its 50 days moving average.


The next support level would be at $27.30 (100 days moving average). The stochastic indicator is pointing to a overbought territories and may likely see further selling down pressure.


Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do you own due diligence.


 Looking at their financial nos for the past 5 years, we can notice that the total revenue didn't really grow that much from 9,174B in 2013 to 10,887B in 2017.

Total net income grow at a faster rate from 4,046B in 2013 to 4,637B in 2017 .


The CAGR is merely about 2.8% which is not really a high single digit nos/nothing great to shout about it.

 Diluted EPS 1.181 in 2013 versus 1.302 in 2017.

 Rolling PE is about 17.22 times.

NAV of $17.804.

P/B is 1.61 times.
yearly dividend has generally been increasing from 58 cents in 2013 to 93 cents in 2017. Yield is about 3.23%




 DBS Group Holdings Ltd provides various commercial banking and financial services in Singapore, Hong Kong, rest of Greater China, South and Southeast Asia, and internationally. It operates through Consumer Banking/Wealth Management, Institutional Banking, Treasury Markets, and Others segments. The Consumer Banking/Wealth Management segment offers banking and related financial services, including current and savings accounts, fixed deposits, loans and home finance, cards, payments, investment, and insurance products. The Institutional Banking segment provides financial services and products, such as short-term working capital financing and specialized lending; cash management, trade finance, and securities and fiduciary services; treasury and markets products; and corporate finance and advisory banking, as well as capital markets solutions. This segment serves institutional clients comprising bank and non-bank financial institutions, government-linked companies, large corporates, and small and medium-sized businesses. The Treasury Markets segment is involved in structuring, market-making, and trading across a range of treasury products. The Others segment offers Islamic banking services. The company operates approximately 280 branches across 18 markets. DBS Group Holdings Ltd was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Singapore.

Keppel Corp

KepCorp - Looking through their financial results for the past 5 years , we can notice that the Total revenue has been declining substantially from 13,282.979m in 2013 to 6,185.668 in 2017.

 I think it is still quite far away for them to grow and increase their total revenue to hit the 10B value. Similarly , the Total net income has also been decreasing from 1,884.798m in 2013 to 301.668m in 2017.

 Diluted EPS has also been going downhill from 0.504 in 2013 to 0.231 in 2017.

 Dividend is almost below half of what has been declared in 2013 of 0.48 versus 0.22 in 2017.


 Diluted EPS of 0.231 , PE is about 35.2 times. I think it is still quite a little bit high as compare to its usual PE of about 13-15 times.

Looking at the latest 1st quarter result which was being released on 

Singapore, 19 April 2018 – Keppel Corporation Limited (Keppel) reported a net profit of S$337 million for the first three months of 2018, 34% higher than the S$252 million net profit for 1Q 2017, bolstered by higher contributions from the Property Division. 

The Group achieved revenue of S$1,470 million for 1Q 2018, which was an improvement of S$222 million or 18% over 1Q 2017. The increase was underpinned by higher revenues achieved by the Property and Infrastructure divisions, which mitigated the impact of lower work volume in the Offshore & Marine Division.

I think the total net profit has also factored in the divestment gain of 289m from the property division.

I think without this divestment gain, net profit may be about the same level as in 1st quarter 2017.

So my observation is that, it may still take quite sometimes for the company to achieve the same level of  net profit as in year 2013.

The current price of $8.15 seems to be trading at a premium level as compare to its NAV of $6.311.

On a positive note , the total order book has generally increased to 4.3B as per the table below:

Another piece of good news is that they have been able to secure a first newbuild drilling rig order in 3 years.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

Also the company had just made announcement of a CIVIL ACTION BY EIG FUNDS.

The Company wishes to update its shareholders that KOM has been served with an amended complaint that includes an additional cause of action against KOM for allegedly aiding and abetting the fraud committed by Petroleo Brasileiro SA and Sete Brasil Participacoes SA against EIG and seeks to recover US$221 million in purported investment losses as well as punitive damages. The Company is of the view that the additional cause of action is similarly without merit and the Company will continue to vigorously defend itself. The Company will provide further updates as appropriate.

quote : http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/KCL%20-%20Update%20on%20EIG%20Lawsuit.2%20May%202018.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=502868

Keppel Corporation Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the offshore and marine, property, infrastructure, and investments businesses in Singapore and internationally. The company constructs, fabricates, and repairs offshore production facilities and drilling rigs, power barges, specialized vessels, and other offshore production facilities; researches and develops deepwater engineering works; engineers, constructs, and fabricates platforms for the oil and gas sector; undertakes shipyard works and other general business activities; and procures equipment and materials for the construction of offshore production facilities. It is also involved in the trading and installation of hardware, industrial, marine, and building related products, as well as the provision of leasing services; sourcing, fabricating, and supply of steel components; ship repairing, shipbuilding, and conversion activities; marine contracting and ship owning business; painting, blasting, and process and sale of slag; property investment, management, and development activities; fund management; golf and hotel ownership and operation; development of marina lifestyle and residential properties; trading of construction materials; development of district heating and cooling systems; electricity generation and supply, and general wholesale trade businesses; purchase and sale of gaseous fuels; and trading of communication systems and accessories. In addition, the company offers jacking systems, and heavy-lift equipment and related services; project management and procurement, towage, financial, real estate investment trust management, logistics and supply chain, warehousing and distribution, data center facilities management, travel agency, and metal fabrication services; housing services for marine workers; and technical consultancy for ship design and engineering works, as well as solid waste treatment solutions. Keppel Corporation Limited was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Singapore.

Hi-P

First quarter result is out .

Hi-P  reports  a  19.9%  yoy  rise  in  net  profit  to  S$10.1  million  for  1Q2018

· · Higher  sales  volume  drives  a  15.1%  yoy  increase  in  revenue  to  S$281.1  million Robust  operating  cash  flow  generation  bolsters  balance  sheet  strength  as  net  cash  position improves  to  S$137.0  million  as  at  31  March  2018  (31  December  2017:  S$77.6  million


Barring  any  other  unforeseen  circumstances,  the  Group  wishes  to  guide  its  performance  as  follows: - -


- The  Group  expects  similar  revenue  but  lower  profit  for  2Q2018  as  compared  to  2Q2017 

 The  Group  expects  higher  revenue  and  profit  for  2H2018  as  compared  to  1H2018

The  Group  expects  similar  revenue  but  lower  profit  for  FY2018  as  compared  to  FY2017 -

Hi-P - rolling EPS of 15 cents. PE of 14.7 times. NAV of 65.4 cents.
Dividend of 0.25 ( Special + final dividend) .

From TA point of view, it has been driven into oversold territories as can be seen from the chart below. MACD has entered the oversold region.

Also current price of 1.66 has fallen off below it's 2,50,100 & 200 days moving average, which is seemingly rather bearish!

Short term wise, with good set of result from Apple, may likely help to push the price higher to retest the 200 days MA at 1.78. Breaking out of 1.78 with ease + good volume, that may drive the price higher towards 2.00 ( 20 days moving average).

Not a call to buy or sell.
Please do you own due diligence.

Looking through their financial nos, The total revenue has slightly increased from 1.2b to about 1.4b.
Gross profit , Net Income has been generally fluctuating up and down within the last 5 years. Earnings is not consistence.


Diluted EPS is also fluctuating up & down which is quite difficult to measure the certainty of the company performance.

This could be a strong seasonally year whereby there have managed to generated a good financial results of hitting diluted eps of 11.2 cents as reported on the table below.

Apple pops on earnings beat, strong guidance

• Apple beat earnings expectations.
• But Apple announced a generous $100 billion capital return program.

Apple reported quarterly earnings and revenue on Tuesday that beat expectations, but sold fewer iPhones than expected.

Shares rose as much 5 percent after hours, as investors digested the company's better-than-expected outlook for the current quarter, and a hefty capital return program.

The soft iPhone sales were still up from a year ago, and Apple CEO Tim Cook said in a statement that customers "chose iPhone X more than any other iPhone each week in the March quarter."

• Earnings per share: $2.73 vs. $2.67, adjusted, expected by a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate
• Revenue: $61.1 billion vs. $60.82 billion expected by Thomson Reuters consensus
• iPhone unit sales: 52.2 million vs. 52.54 million expected by a StreetAccount estimate
• Fiscal Q3 revenue guidance: $51.5 billion to $53.5 billion vs. $51.61 billion expected by Thomson Reuters consensus

Net income was $13.82 billion, up from $11.03 billion a year ago. A year ago, Apple earned $2.10 a share on revenue of $52.9 billion.

Wall Street reads between the lines on iPhone X, China sales

While Apple's iPhone shares were slightly softer than expected, the company managed to make more money than forecast with its services business, and offered Wall Street a generous $100 billion capital return program.

(cnbc.com)

Dow Jones

3rd May -

Dow closes more than 150 points lower, but Apple rises 4%

• The major indexes initially popped after the the central bank made its announcement on monetary policy, but sold off sharply in the last hour of trading.


• The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as was largely expected. The central bank's policymaking committee also noted that "overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent."

 Dow Jones industrial averagedeclined 174.07 points to 23,924.98, while the S&P 500 fell 0.7 percent to 2,635.67. The Nasdaq composite also dropped 0.4 percent to close at 7,100.90. The major indexes initially popped after the the central bank made its announcement, but sold off sharply in the last hour of trading.

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as was largely expected.The central bank's policymaking committee also noted that "overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent." That was an upgrade from the March meeting in which the FOMC said the indicators "have continued to run below 2 percent."

Dow yesterday closed more than 100 points lower, down 148.04 points to finish at 24163.15. Looks rather bearish!

The index is trading below it's 20, 50 & 100 days moving average. This is quite negative.
It may likely go down to retest the recent low at 23850 level. Breaking down of this level may likely challenge the 23700 level which is also coincide with it's 200 days moving average.

If it is unable to defend this 23700 level ,it would be quite bearish  and may likely move down to test 23380 level which is the immediate support level .


It could well be driven into Bear mode and kick-start into down trend once this level is being broken down.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

Quote :

US stocks are set for a weak open as earnings and the Fed meeting take center stage.

U.S. stock index futures fluctuated ahead of Tuesday's open, as investors turned their attention to the corporate and central banking space.

Around 7 a.m. ET, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 23 points, indicating a lower open of 10.15 points. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures also indicated a weak start to the session for their respective markets.(cnbc.com)

rvey at 10:30 a.m. ET.

The Federal Opening Market Committee will begin the first day of its two-day meeting; the group is expected to discuss the current state of the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

At the monetary policy event, market participants are not expecting any alterations to interest rates; however, a change in rhetoric could occur. The central bank's decision is due Wednesday.

Reverstone

theintelligentinvestor

Reply to clim : Yeah, the initial question from sporeshare is which counter has good earnings power

theintelligentinvestor

Reply : Don't take this as detailed analysis, just my 2c.

1) ROE > 20% for the past 5 years
2) CAGR 2013-17 - Revenue 23%, Earnings 22, Equity 18%. Healthcare glove expected to grow at 8-12% in the next 3 years.
3) Debt - CR 3, Debt/Eq 4%
4) Smallest among the 5 glove manufactures, but their EBIT is clearly superior, ie 2-4x of the other 4, Hartalega, Top Glove, Kossan & Supermax.
5) Lastly, as compared to the others in the list. Riverstone product has a bigger global market than the other that are more local or within regional.

SSJ4

Reply to theintelligentinvestor : hi tii, do u feel the pe is a tad high now?

theintelligentinvestor

Reply to @SSJ4 : Yes.

If you have noticed, I am not invested in Riverstone. Most boxes are checked, but the last & most important one (price) has not. :)

Riverstone - Riverstone Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes cleanroom and healthcare gloves under the RS brand. It also produces cleanroom finger cots, packaging bags, face masks, and wipers; and other consumables, such as hair nets, static dissipative shoes, safety booties, shoe covers, ESD rubber bands, sticky mats and rollers, swab-polyester and microfibers, antistatic gloves, static dissipative shoes, cleanroom coveralls, and cleanroom papers. In addition, the company trades in latex products; and distributes cleanroom products. Further, Riverstone Holdings Limited offers healthcare products comprising white, blue, black, and accelerator nitrile exam gloves. Its products are used in the hard disk drive, semiconductor, and healthcare industries. The company exports its products primarily to the Americas, Asia, and Europe. Riverstone Holdings Limited was founded in 1989 and is based in Singapore.

looking through their financial nos for the past few years. They are expanding and doing very well in terms of overall Total Revenue has been consistently increasing at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate of 13.96% a double digits grow of Gross revenue which is considered very good.

Gross Profit has been constantly increasing at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate(CAGR) of 20.4% from RM97.8m to RM197.8m. Gross profit margin has been maintaining above 20% at 24.2%. This is rather healthy and superb for a growing company.

Net Profit amount has been generating a high end double digits percentage of Average 18.6%.

What a spectacular achievement. The Net profit amount has seen a great improvement of RM58m from 2013 to RM 129.3m in 2017. It is growing at a CAGR of 24.58%. I would say is an outstanding achievement.

Super Healthy Cash flow generation for the past few years as can be seen from the financial results the Ops cash flow activities has been increasing from RM80.2m to RM145.7m. 

The company has a robust balance sheet of which the total borrowing is about RM25M, Cash on hand is RM114.25m, a net net position company with net cash position of RM89.25m.

Next on to their efficiency. Riverstone's return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) have maintained well from 2013 to 2017. In fact, I looked at their past trend these two return Metrics and they have maintained well at current levels of ROA (above 13%) and ROE (above 20%). We must realise that it is not easy to maintain the ROA and ROE in any business while it is growing it's assets and shareholders' equity through time. To be able to maintain the same level or even increase the level of ROA and ROE would mean the business has high efficiency. Riverstone just demonstrated their high efficiency in their businesses. If they can continue to maintain these same levels of returns, I will be even much more impressed with them.

ROA - is a measure of company profitability relative to total assets. It is calculated by dividing Tax Effective EBIT ( earning before interest and tax) by average total assets over a twelve months period.

ROE - is a measure of company profitability relative to total equity. It is calculated by dividing Tax Effective EBIT ( earning before interest and tax) by average total equity over a twelve months period.

Investor would be pleased to know that they are able to constantly increasing the paying out of the dividend over the past years as reflected on the chart below. This is a plus factor and a very pleasing way of rewarding the investor.

OUTlook:

Phase 4 expansion is now completed with seven production lines fully commissioned, bringing the Group’s total annual production capacity to 7.6 billion gloves

 Phase 5 expansion is now underway with an additional 1.4 billion pieces to ramp up total annual production capacity to 9.0 billion pieces by end FY2018

 Phase 6 expansion to add another 1.4 billion pieces by end FY2019 to 10.4 billion pieces in total annual production capacity

 Non-HDD markets for cleanroom gloves as well as US and Japan markets for both cleanroom and healthcare gloves continue to gain traction

 Continue to tap on fast-growing markets for healthcare gloves

Key Challenges

Competition • Cleanroom: Continue to target new markets and customers •

Healthcare: Focus on customised and premium products Increase in costs such as raw material, labor, and fuel •

Automation • Improve productivity using Lean Six Sigma • Reduce changeover time by installing an additional line

Investment Merits:

Continues to be in expansion mode driven by growth in both clean room and healthcare gloves – 36.8% increase in production capacity by end 2019 to 10.4 billion pieces of gloves

 Resilient balance sheet with net cash position with continued ability to generate positive operating cash flow

Consistent dividend payout since listing

Committed management team

I have roughly workout the intrinsic Ops Cash flow value of $1.25 taking into consideration the CAGR of 16.14%. Discount factor of 4%.

Let factor in the further discount of 0.85 X $1.25 = $1.06.

Dividend of 2.3 cents p.a. Yield is about 2.25%( current price of S$1.02). 

NAV of S$0.282.

The current price of $1.02 is approaching the fair value of $1.06. Giving the fact that the company is growing and has been consistently increasing their total gross revenue and net profit level. looks like it may trade well above the fair value of $1.06. 

I think if there is any further weakness in price, i may consider to slowly accumulate.

Might be anything between 80-90 cents..That may provide a bigger Margin of Safety.

Is hard to debate how many discount factor percentage to use to calculate the intrinsic value. For this healthcare related company, rolling EPS of 5.7 cents, PE of 17.7 times seems quite attractive. Pls dyodd.

Let say the average PE for a healthcare related company might be trading around PE 22 times. We would have come out a Target Price of $1.25.

not a call to buy or sell.

dyodd.