Season Investor Investment Idea

As long as you didn't do any CONTRA, MARGIN financing or speculate, I don't see any big deals with the upcoming correction. 

Yes I think it is a CORRECTION rather than a full blown recessionary event.

Let let the recent Trade tariff affect your feeling and emotion. Yes it may bring down all the ships (no doubts) but when the tide recovers, those strong guys will survive (blue chips and fundamentally financially strong companies).

Don't read too much into news and affect your investment decision..

If profits were evaporating for a stock I am excited about, I will get even more excited because that also means the share price is coming down which offers me a chance to add to my position in this same exciting stock if the price is worth adding more. Then the next round when the price heads higher again, I will be multiplying the profits in this same stock on a larger position. It is great to hold an increasingly larger position in an exciting stock through time of which it's underlying business fundamentals are strong and growing fast whenever the share price is sensible to keep adding to one's position, the more exciting the share price at cheap valuation the better for an exciting business!

Below are the list of counters that I am monitoring:

NOT A CALL TO BUY or sell.

Please do your due diligence.

1. Jardine Matheson Holdings
2. Haw Par Corporation
3. DBS
4. OCBC
5. Nordic
6. Riverstone Holdings
7. Top Glove Holdings
8. Micro Mechanics
9. Ascendas REIT
10. Parkway Life REIT
11. First REIT
12. CapitaCommercial Trust
13. Mapletree Commercial Tust
14. CapitaLand Mall Trust
15. Suntec REIT
16. Raffles Medical Group
17. UOI
18. Sheng Siong
19. Wilmar
20.Food Empire
21. Sunningdale
22. ST Engineering
23. SATS

But for the average person, shifts in the market, even ones as dramatic as the ones we've seen this year, shouldn't be cause for panic. During times of volatility, seasoned investors Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio agree that it's best to stay calm and stick to the basics.

"Don't watch the market closely," Buffett told CNBC in 2016 amid wild market fluctuations. "If they're trying to buy and sell stocks, and worry when they go down a little bit … and think they should maybe sell them when they go up, they're not going to have very good results."

QUOTE :

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/06/warren-buffett-and-ray-dalio-agree-on-what-to-do-when-the-market-tanks.html?recirc=taboolainternal

Buffett emphasized that holding onto investments long-term is crucial to having them pay off. "The money is made in investments by investing and by owning good companies for long periods of time," the Berkshire Hathaway CEO told CNBC. "If they buy good companies, buy them over time, they're going to do fine 10, 20, 30 years from now."

Dalio, the founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates who is worth an estimated $14.6 billion, agrees. Though it's tempting to sell when the market begins to drop, he says, giving in to your fear is not a sound strategy.

"You can not possibly succeed that way," Dalio said at the Harvard Kennedy School's Institute of Politics. "You've got to do the opposite. It's when you're not scared you probably want to sell, and when you are scared, you probably want to buy."

Both investors say that the best way to invest successfully is by not trying too hard to anticipate market fluctuations and by staying calm despite them.

Trade/invest base on your decision.

Sheng Siong

Sheng Siong today up 1 cents and closed well at 96.5 cents + good volume . Likely to re-conquer 97 cents and scale higher towards $1.00 soon!

Sheng Siong - Local supermarket has been generally doing well as reflected on their Financial results with consistent rising in Net Income & cash flow for the past five years:

Company has a net cash position of about 4.9 cents per share.

I think zero debts and giving out a dividend payout ratio of 71% @ 3.3 cents for FY 2017. Yield is about 3.55%.

EPS is 4.64 cents. PE of 21.5 at 93 cents.

I think average PE is about 25x should be achievable at $1.16.

I think The fair value is about $1.10 - $1.20. At current price of 93 cents, upwards potential is about 25% to hit the TP of $1.16.

Sheng Siong opened its first overseas store in Kunming, Yunnan province in Q4 2017.

Can Sheng Siong repeat its success in China..

Sheng Siong holds a 60% of the total venture in China. I think if they are able to manage it well that may likely boost their total revenue as well as a good area to expand their business operations. This will likely be seeing an upgrade of their financial status . I view this as a positive move. 

Pls do your own analysis.

For Sheng Siong, I have two possible fair values depending on how well it can continue to grow it's supermarket business both locally and in China it is now entering.

For the conservative fair value, if we assume Sheng Siong slows down it's business growth at CAGR of 6% on it's EPS, then fair share price is $0.95 which happens to be around the price it is currently traded at.

For the aggressive fair value, if we assume Sheng Siong can continue to grow it's EPS same as past 5 years CAGR of 9.06% without any slowing down in the growth of it's local and China supermarket businesses, it's fair share price is $1.24.

Thus, any price at $0.95 and below to me is ok to accumulate Sheng Siong.

Not a call to buy or sell.
dyodd

Sheng Siong Group Ltd., an investment holding company, operates supermarkets in Singapore. The company’s stores offer an assortment of live, fresh, and chilled produce, such as seafood, meat, and vegetables; and packaged, processed, frozen, and/or preserved food products, as well as general merchandise, including toiletries and essential household products. It is also involved in general trading, and wholesale import and export businesses. The company operates approximately 43 supermarkets/grocery stores under the Sheng Siong brand name. Sheng Siong Group Ltd. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Singapore.

INVESTMENT Method & Strategy

Below is the investment method./strategy that has worked well for me so far. I will only add to my position if the share price has dropped about 10% lower than my average holding price or recently added price. If the fall is less than that usually I will just sit on the shares and do nothing. This is assuming the fundamentals of the underlying business has not changed.

Value Investment - which is the Best method that works well for you?

I practise this add to position only when it drops 10% lower than my average holding price or recently added price of a particular stock for my leveraged CFD portfolio. Of course, I will factor in whether the market sentiments have changed to a bear market direction. If I feel that it has changed, I will not add any more long positions and would instead convert all my long positions to short positions. This conversion from longs to shorts is based on the market which has convincingly changed direction to a bear market. If it is only a temporary negative sentiments due to certain news which may not have wide ranging impact on global economy, then I will continue to hold my long positions and only add if price drops by 10%.

For others , you may also consider to have a bigger percentage of more than 10%, may be 15-20% if this works well for you.

I suppose this kind of disciplined approach also works for a non-leveraged portfolio. A 10% drop before adding on to position is reasonable especially if the shares were recently bought in and the value investor has already done his due diligence to buy in at a sensible fair price. 

Usually, it is difficult for share prices of a fundamentally good business with strong growth prospects to drop by too large a magnitude.

If share price drops more than 10% from one's average holding price, then the investor must really ask the critical question whether his average holding price was bought too high due to him making a wrong assessment of the business's fair share price he has entered? Or is it suggestive that a bear market is coming and a lot of other shares have also fallen by at least 10% off their recent highest price reached and prices seem to display even more falling momentum? Or is there something inherently wrong with the fundamentals of the business that the investor did not pick up in his initial assessment before he entered the stock? Or is it a temporary issue that the business is facing which will cause a temporary deterioration in business fundamentals but it should recover in due time?

Weightings of the individual stocks in one's portfolio is important or as one calls it position sizing. The highest weighting is always given to the most promising stock among the other stocks in one's portfolio. Then, we scale down accordingly until the lowest weighting goes to the least promising stock in one's portfolio. Sometimes, recently bought in stocks may become the least weighting in the portfolio. It is alright to be if the investor still needs time to monitor the progress of the recently bought stocks in his portfolio before adding to his position in it and thus increase it's weighting against other existing stocks in his portfolio.

My suggestion is to have a core portion of one's portfolio into 2 to 4 stocks which takes up about 50% of invested capital in one's portfolio. This core portion must be really the best of the best stocks the investor can possibly stock pick. Then the rest of the 50% of invested capital can be held in 5 to 11 stocks which makes up the satellite portion of his portfolio. Then, just add to or subtract from positions of individual stocks as and when necessary to readjust portfolio when fundamentals of individual stocks and their future prospects have changed. Or if there are even better stocks outside of one's portfolio to consider, one may exit certain stocks in one's portfolio and enter the new better stocks.

In any case, try not to invest in too many stocks. I find that anywhere from 7 to 15 stocks in one's portfolio is good enough. If the investor is very confident and experienced with proven track record, even concentrating his funds in 7 stocks is alright. 15 stocks I feel is about maximum as it is tough to manage more than 15 stocks in a portfolio to have to keep track of their announcements, news, financial reports and so on. Imagine reading 15 annual reports every year and thinking upon 15 stocks. It consumes a lot of time and effort and many of us are working adults with families to take care off. Unless one is a full-time investor. If not, do not try to be a superman managing more than 15 stocks. quote from jeremyowtaip.

If really want to gain diversification without much time and effort to monitor the investment, investing in one or few good low cost index funds which track S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ, Russell 3000, HSI, China A50, CSI 300 will be good enough. 

These are good market indices of the world two largest economies which should continue to do well over the next decade (barring any bear market coming). But if we stretch it longer to more than a decade, then "yes", these indices will still likely do well over the long term.

The amount I average down each time can vary. There are no fixed rules I stick to.

 It is based on my experience and also how much I understand about the particular business. In my mind, I would already have ranked the various stocks in my portfolio from the best to the least. If the stock that belongs to a good ranking drops in price such as those in the core portfolio portion, I may add on a greater position each time it's price drops. However, if the stock belongs to the not the best stocks in the satellite portion of the portfolio, I may add lesser to their position each time their share price drops. This is just a general guideline.

I also use a lot of my own experience which have been built up over time when it comes to averaging down as I will have many points of consideration before I add to and how much I add to my position in a stock. The whole idea is that eventually the better stocks will end up with higher weight-age than others. This process of portfolio management is for my non-leveraged portfolio. 

For a sound fundamental counters , I would usually stick to blue chips stock such as the follow listed counter:

1. ST Engineering.

2. SingTel

3. Wilmar

4.Kepcorp

5. DBS

6. OCBC

7. SATS

8. Genting Sing

9. Haw Par

10. Ascendas Reit

11. Sembcorp Ind

12. CMT

13. ComfortDelgro
14. STI ETF

Not a call to buy or sell.

please do you own due diligence.

Safe & low risks stock

Safe heavenly and low risks stock counter that may be able to withstand the stock market volatility or any major market crash.

I think below listed counters may provide stable fixed yield and super low risk investment :

 1. Citydev NCCPS - 3.9% interest perf share .issue by CityDev.

 2. OCC 5.1% NCPS - 5.1% OCBC Bank prefer share. Issue by OCbc bank.

 3. DBS bk 4.7% NCPS - 4.7% pref share . Issue by DBS Bank.

 4. FCLTrea 3.65%b220522 - 3.65% bond. Issue by Frasers.

 5. CapMallTrb3.08%210220 - 3.08% bond.

  6. Singapore Saving Bond - 1.65% to 3% ( 1 - 10 Years).

Not a call to buy or sell.
Pls do your own due diligence.

Comfortdelgro

Comfortdelgro - From TA point of view, the current price of $2 08 is staying above it's 20 days MA, 50 & 100. Seem not bad! It is stucked in a consolidation mode and will need to cross over $2.10 which is also coincide with 200 days MA in order to rise up the channel. Breaking out of $2.10 with ease & couple with good volume that may drive the price higher towards $2.20

 Not a call to buy or sell. Please do your own due diligence.

Looking through their financial numbers for past 5 years we can notice the Net income margin is hovering around a single digits growth of 7% which is considered not too bad for a mature business environment.


Dividend has been generally rising from 7 cents in 2013 to 10.4 cents in 2017. Yield is about 5% base on current price of $2.08

Their cash flow level seems decreasing as reflected on the past financial figures. Kindly refer to below screenshot for your reference:

Investor may want to take note of this declining cash flow nos.

I have roughly workout the fair value which is about $1.82 to $2.00.

The current price is trading at $2.08.

Not a call to buy or sell.
Trade/ invest base on your own decision.

ComfortDelGCorporation Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a land transportation company. It offers public bus and charter bus services; rail services; motor vehicle evaluation and other related services; public taxi services through the rental of taxis to hirers; car rental, car care, and leasing services; outdoor advertising services; and taxi booking management services. The company also provides vehicle inspection and other related services; non-vehicle testing, inspection, and consultancy services; automotive engineering services; coach services; private hire services; crash repair services; bus station services; and charter, coach, and terminal services. In addition, it operates driving schools; and workshops for repairing, servicing, and general maintenance of motor vehicles, as well as acts as a dealer in diesel for motor vehicles. Further, the company rents buses to hirers and provides related services; and constructs specialized vehicles and assembles bus bodies. It operates a fleet of 42,500 buses, taxis, and rental vehicles. The company has operations in Singapore, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, China, Vietnam, and Malaysia. ComfortDelGro Corporation Limited

Soilbuild Reit

Soilbuild Reit - from TA point of view, the current price of 68.5 cents is hovering above all the SMA lines such as 20 days MA, 50,100 & 200 . Looks bullish.

MACD is also showing a positive divergence. Looks positive.

Short term wise, we may likely see the price heading higher towards 70 then 72 cents.

Not a call to buy or sell.
Please do you own due diligence.

I have roughly glanced through their financial nos for the past 4 years and below is my observation:

Total revenue has seen generally increasing from 68.14m in 2014 to 81.84m in 2017.

Net Income had suffered a fall from 42.43m in 2014 to a negative (loss) of (28.29m).
I think investor might want to take note of this and check further into their latest financial report.

Gearing seems quite high above 40% , at 43.3% - Total Assets divided by Total Liabilities ( 512.965/1181.603). Usually, for Reit counter, we would prefer below 40% ideally would be good to have it in the range of 30-36%..

DPU has been generally declining from 6.2 cents in 2014 to 5.7 cents in 2017. A decrease of 8% of which is not so rosy for a Reit counter which ideally would prefer it to maintain or increasing.

Soilbuild REIT announces distributable income of S$14.6 million and S$59.9 million for 4Q and full year FY2017 respectively Highlights

• 4Q & FY2017 DPU was 1.383 cents and 5.712 cents respectively

• Proposed divestment of 61 and 71 Tuas Bay Drive for S$55.0 million

• More than 920,000 sq ft of renewals, forward renewals and new leases signed in FY2017

• Portfolio occupancy stands at 92.7%

NAV of 63.4 cents.
P/B 1.03

The current price of 68.5 cents is trading above its NAV of 63.4 cents. It is trading at a premium level  of which you may want to take note .

DPU of 5.7 cents which translate to a yield of 8.7% looks rather attractive .

I think the fair value is around 69 - 70 cents.

Trade/invest base on your own decision.



Prudent and Pro-active Capital Management :
On 19 October 2017, Soilbuild REIT entered into a S$200 million, 4.5-year secured facility agreement with OCBC and RHB for the refinancing of a S$185 million secured loan with a balance of S$15 million available for draw down up to October 2018 (“Refinancing”). Post Refinancing, Solaris remains the single encumbered property in Soilbuild REIT’s portfolio.

The Refinancing ahead of the original debt expiry enabled Soilbuild REIT to extend its weighted average debt maturity and enjoy some interest expense savings. In November 2017, Soilbuild REIT emerged as a highly commended winner at the Adam Smiths Awards Asia 2017 (best funding solution category) for the second year running.

In 4Q FY2017 and FY2017, Soilbuild REIT’s weighted average borrowing cost was 3.20% p.a. and 3.31% p.a. respectively.

As at 31 December 2017, its weighted average debt expiry stood at 2.7 years and interest rate exposure was 70.1% fixed for the next 1.4 years. Soilbuild REIT’s unencumbered investment properties were in excess of S$803 million, representing

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SB%20REIT%20media%20release.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=485550

Rentals of all industrial properties fell by 3.0% and 1.1% in 3Q 2017 y-o-y and quarter-onquarter respectively.

The multi-user factories, single-user factories and warehouse rental indices have receded 3.0%, 2.7% and 4.5% y-o-y respectively, whilst business park rentals expanded 2.6% y-o-y.

Mr Roy Teo, CEO of the Manager, said: “We are pleased to report that amid the subdued industrial market, Soilbuild REIT has maintained its DPU q-o-q. The portfolio continues to face headwinds from the oversupply of industrial space in Singapore.

In the short term, our focus is to maintain the portfolio occupancy level which may require us to compromise on rental rates. In line with our proactive portfolio management strategy, we are also pleased to propose the divestment of KTL.

The divestment will free up capital and provides greater financial flexibility for our pursuit of other growth drivers when opportunities arise in 2018.”

Soilbuild REIT is a Singapore-focused real estate investment trust (“REIT”) with a portfolio of business parks and industrial properties used by industries engaging in manufacturing, engineering, logistic, warehousing, electronics, marine, oil & gas, research and development and value-added knowledge-based activities. Its portfolio of properties includes Solaris, a landmark development in one-north, Eightrium @ Changi Business Park, Tuas Connection, West Park BizCentral and Bukit Batok Connection. Soilbuild REIT’s portfolio has a net lettable area of 3.90 million square feet and an occupancy rate of 92.7% as at 31 December 2017.