Safe & low risks stock

Safe heavenly and low risks stock counter that may be able to withstand the stock market volatility or any major market crash.

I think below listed counters may provide stable fixed yield and super low risk investment :

 1. Citydev NCCPS - 3.9% interest perf share .issue by CityDev.

 2. OCC 5.1% NCPS - 5.1% OCBC Bank prefer share. Issue by OCbc bank.

 3. DBS bk 4.7% NCPS - 4.7% pref share . Issue by DBS Bank.

 4. FCLTrea 3.65%b220522 - 3.65% bond. Issue by Frasers.

 5. CapMallTrb3.08%210220 - 3.08% bond.

  6. Singapore Saving Bond - 1.65% to 3% ( 1 - 10 Years).

Not a call to buy or sell.
Pls do your own due diligence.

Comfortdelgro

Comfortdelgro - From TA point of view, the current price of $2 08 is staying above it's 20 days MA, 50 & 100. Seem not bad! It is stucked in a consolidation mode and will need to cross over $2.10 which is also coincide with 200 days MA in order to rise up the channel. Breaking out of $2.10 with ease & couple with good volume that may drive the price higher towards $2.20

 Not a call to buy or sell. Please do your own due diligence.

Looking through their financial numbers for past 5 years we can notice the Net income margin is hovering around a single digits growth of 7% which is considered not too bad for a mature business environment.


Dividend has been generally rising from 7 cents in 2013 to 10.4 cents in 2017. Yield is about 5% base on current price of $2.08

Their cash flow level seems decreasing as reflected on the past financial figures. Kindly refer to below screenshot for your reference:

Investor may want to take note of this declining cash flow nos.

I have roughly workout the fair value which is about $1.82 to $2.00.

The current price is trading at $2.08.

Not a call to buy or sell.
Trade/ invest base on your own decision.

ComfortDelGCorporation Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a land transportation company. It offers public bus and charter bus services; rail services; motor vehicle evaluation and other related services; public taxi services through the rental of taxis to hirers; car rental, car care, and leasing services; outdoor advertising services; and taxi booking management services. The company also provides vehicle inspection and other related services; non-vehicle testing, inspection, and consultancy services; automotive engineering services; coach services; private hire services; crash repair services; bus station services; and charter, coach, and terminal services. In addition, it operates driving schools; and workshops for repairing, servicing, and general maintenance of motor vehicles, as well as acts as a dealer in diesel for motor vehicles. Further, the company rents buses to hirers and provides related services; and constructs specialized vehicles and assembles bus bodies. It operates a fleet of 42,500 buses, taxis, and rental vehicles. The company has operations in Singapore, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, China, Vietnam, and Malaysia. ComfortDelGro Corporation Limited

Soilbuild Reit

Soilbuild Reit - from TA point of view, the current price of 68.5 cents is hovering above all the SMA lines such as 20 days MA, 50,100 & 200 . Looks bullish.

MACD is also showing a positive divergence. Looks positive.

Short term wise, we may likely see the price heading higher towards 70 then 72 cents.

Not a call to buy or sell.
Please do you own due diligence.

I have roughly glanced through their financial nos for the past 4 years and below is my observation:

Total revenue has seen generally increasing from 68.14m in 2014 to 81.84m in 2017.

Net Income had suffered a fall from 42.43m in 2014 to a negative (loss) of (28.29m).
I think investor might want to take note of this and check further into their latest financial report.

Gearing seems quite high above 40% , at 43.3% - Total Assets divided by Total Liabilities ( 512.965/1181.603). Usually, for Reit counter, we would prefer below 40% ideally would be good to have it in the range of 30-36%..

DPU has been generally declining from 6.2 cents in 2014 to 5.7 cents in 2017. A decrease of 8% of which is not so rosy for a Reit counter which ideally would prefer it to maintain or increasing.

Soilbuild REIT announces distributable income of S$14.6 million and S$59.9 million for 4Q and full year FY2017 respectively Highlights

• 4Q & FY2017 DPU was 1.383 cents and 5.712 cents respectively

• Proposed divestment of 61 and 71 Tuas Bay Drive for S$55.0 million

• More than 920,000 sq ft of renewals, forward renewals and new leases signed in FY2017

• Portfolio occupancy stands at 92.7%

NAV of 63.4 cents.
P/B 1.03

The current price of 68.5 cents is trading above its NAV of 63.4 cents. It is trading at a premium level  of which you may want to take note .

DPU of 5.7 cents which translate to a yield of 8.7% looks rather attractive .

I think the fair value is around 69 - 70 cents.

Trade/invest base on your own decision.



Prudent and Pro-active Capital Management :
On 19 October 2017, Soilbuild REIT entered into a S$200 million, 4.5-year secured facility agreement with OCBC and RHB for the refinancing of a S$185 million secured loan with a balance of S$15 million available for draw down up to October 2018 (“Refinancing”). Post Refinancing, Solaris remains the single encumbered property in Soilbuild REIT’s portfolio.

The Refinancing ahead of the original debt expiry enabled Soilbuild REIT to extend its weighted average debt maturity and enjoy some interest expense savings. In November 2017, Soilbuild REIT emerged as a highly commended winner at the Adam Smiths Awards Asia 2017 (best funding solution category) for the second year running.

In 4Q FY2017 and FY2017, Soilbuild REIT’s weighted average borrowing cost was 3.20% p.a. and 3.31% p.a. respectively.

As at 31 December 2017, its weighted average debt expiry stood at 2.7 years and interest rate exposure was 70.1% fixed for the next 1.4 years. Soilbuild REIT’s unencumbered investment properties were in excess of S$803 million, representing

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SB%20REIT%20media%20release.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=485550

Rentals of all industrial properties fell by 3.0% and 1.1% in 3Q 2017 y-o-y and quarter-onquarter respectively.

The multi-user factories, single-user factories and warehouse rental indices have receded 3.0%, 2.7% and 4.5% y-o-y respectively, whilst business park rentals expanded 2.6% y-o-y.

Mr Roy Teo, CEO of the Manager, said: “We are pleased to report that amid the subdued industrial market, Soilbuild REIT has maintained its DPU q-o-q. The portfolio continues to face headwinds from the oversupply of industrial space in Singapore.

In the short term, our focus is to maintain the portfolio occupancy level which may require us to compromise on rental rates. In line with our proactive portfolio management strategy, we are also pleased to propose the divestment of KTL.

The divestment will free up capital and provides greater financial flexibility for our pursuit of other growth drivers when opportunities arise in 2018.”

Soilbuild REIT is a Singapore-focused real estate investment trust (“REIT”) with a portfolio of business parks and industrial properties used by industries engaging in manufacturing, engineering, logistic, warehousing, electronics, marine, oil & gas, research and development and value-added knowledge-based activities. Its portfolio of properties includes Solaris, a landmark development in one-north, Eightrium @ Changi Business Park, Tuas Connection, West Park BizCentral and Bukit Batok Connection. Soilbuild REIT’s portfolio has a net lettable area of 3.90 million square feet and an occupancy rate of 92.7% as at 31 December 2017.

AEM Holdings

AEM Holdings - From TA point of view, it is rather bearish as the current price of $6.03 is staying below its 20 day MA & also the 50 days MA.

MACD & RSI has been trending down, which may likely indicate the price may continue to see further weakness.

Likely to go down to retest the recent low of $5.21.
Breaking down of $5.21 with high volume , that may likely go down to test $4.72-$4.75 price level which is also coincide with the 100 days MA.
Breaking down of this price level, may see it slide further down towards $4.10 ( 200 days MA).


After hitting the all-time-high of $7.77 on 13th Mar 2018, it has since revered and continued to trend lower. Also can be seen from sgx announcement page, dir has been selling some of their share. This may indicate that the share price could have reached the Peak level.
Share holder /investor may want to take note of this.


Not a call to sell or buy.
pls do you own due diligence.

Looking through the Financial nos for AEM Holdings, it has generally quite impressive with the greater magnitude of  boosting their total net income.

Total net income has increased from $6.4m ( 2016) to $29.5m (2017) , an increase of 360%.

EPS has also been generally rising for the past 4 years from 2013 to 2017.

The debt-to-equity ratio (D/E) is a financial ratio indicating the relative proportion of shareholders' equity and debt used to finance a company's assets. Closely related to leveraging, the ratio is also known as risk, gearing or leverage.

Borrowing money for business all along to me is a double edge sword. If use well you grow fast and prosper. Some industries are highly capital intensive so borrowing lots of money is the only way to be in business or for expansion.

Debt/Equity ratio has seen a great improvement from 2.46% in 2013 to 0.012% in 2017.

Lower values of debt-to-equity ratio are favorable indicating less risk. Higher debt-to-equity ratio is unfavorable because it means that the business relies more on external lenders thus it is at higher risk, especially at higher interest rates. A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.00 means that half of the assets of a business are financed by debts and half by shareholders' equity. A value higher than 1.00 means that more assets are financed by debt that those financed by money of shareholders' and vice versa.

An increasing trend in of debt-to-equity ratio is also alarming because it means that the percentage of assets of a business which are financed by the debts is increasing.

Total Revenue - is the sum of cash inflows, increase in operating accounts such as receivables and occasionally, unrealized gains generated in the course of Company's Business activities.

Total Revenue has greatly increased from $47m in 2013 to $221.87m (2017)

Current ratio = 2.18 (2013) vs 1.81 (2017) . It measures the company's ability to cover current debts with current assets.It it calculated by dividing total current assets by total current liabilities.

It seems to be able to maintain at a healthy level.

The company is in a total Net Net Position as can be seen the total current Assets $105.45m is greater than the total Liabilities $58.85m.

Final dividend of 6.5 cents (XD 18 May 2018) + interim dividend of 2.5 cents, total dividend of 9 cents which is only translate into a yield of 1.5% does not looks so attractive for an investor looking for a higher yield counter. 

I have roughly workout the EPS intrinsic value using the CAGR of 40% for past 4 years, discount factor of 25% and the fair value came up to be about $7.00.


Let us factor in another discount of 5% , $7.00 x 0.95 = $ 6.65.

The normal EPS of 47.85 cents, PE of 12.6 times base on current price of $6.03. The upwards potential of  62 cents which may translate to a gain of 10%

Let say we are going to workout the target price base on average PE of 14 times, that may give us a TP of $6.70.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Trade/invest base on your own decision.




AEM Holdings Ltd, an investment holding company, provides solutions in equipment systems; and precision components and related manufacturing services for various industries. The company operates through Equipment Systems Solutions and Precision Component Solutions segments. It provides high density modular test handlers, wafer handling systems, hot spot testers, and smartcard backend handlers for use in semiconductor, solar cell, and smartcard manufacturing facilities, as well as related tooling parts; and designs, develops, and manufactures precision engineering products, such as test sockets, device change kits, stiffeners, golden units, holding jigs, preventive maintenance kits, and precision mechanical assembly modules for use in the electronic, life science, instrumentation, and aerospace industries, as well as offers engineering services. The company offers its products through a network of sales offices, associates, and distributors in Asia, Europe, and the United States. AEM Holdings Ltd is headquartered in Singapore.

Ascendas Hospitality Trust

A-HTrust : from TA point of view, it is looking rather bearish!
After hitting the high of 90.5 cents on 1st Feb 2018, it has since retreated sharply and continue to go on a down hill to touch the current low price of 78.5 cents.

The price is hovering below most of the SMA lines such as 20,50,100 & 200 days MA.Doesn't look rosy as it has broken down again the recent low of 79 cents.

Short term wise, I think it may likely go down to test 73.5 cents with extension to 70 cents.


Not a call to buy or sell.
Pls do you own due diligence.

Looking through the Financial results for past few years, the Total Revenue seems to be generally increasing from 214.28m (2013) to 224.43m in 2017.

Net income is not consistence as in 2013 it was generating  16.68m and has been drifted lower to 8.10m in 2017.You may want to look further into the detail for this declining net income figure.

Gearing looks fine which is below 35%.

Cash flow has also been generally declining .

Average dividend of 5.48 cents.
Yield is about 6.5%

NAV of 85.6 cents.

I have roughly workout the fair value using DDM and derive the value of about 87 cents.

Trade/Invest base on your own decision.

Quote : Jeremyowtaip -

1. Recent sale of China hotel properties at good premium to unlock value for unitholders.

2. NAV per share after divestment of China properties is increased thus leading to an attractive P/B ratio below 1.

3. Some possible ways the trust may utilise the divestment proceeds include paying higher distributions or a one-off special distribution seen as a return of capital to unitholders. Also, the trust may utilise the proceeds to pare down debts and decrease gearing. The trust may also utilise the proceeds for AEIs of existing properties and/or for new acquisitions. Or can channel the proceeds into all of the above mentioned with different weightings for each depending on the manager.

My take is that no matter which ways the divestment proceeds are utilised, the manager should provide a sound basis to their unitholders why it chooses certain way to use the proceeds.

For example, if it chooses to do a new acquisition that is not so attractive as compared to previous China hotel properties it has divested paying too high a price for the new property which has less attractiveness. Then, we ask ourselves this question. Why exit the China hotel properties at a premium only to re-enter another new property with less attractive future prospects? This would be doing one good decision followed by one bad decision to negate the previous good effect.

If it chooses to pare down strategically some of the existing debts to increase the average weighted length of time to debt expiry in view of potential rise in interest rates. Maybe this is a good decision.

If it chooses to reward unitholders with higher one-off distributions, it is a neutral option depending how they do it. If most of the proceeds are used towards rewarding unitholders, it may help to boost their unit price higher on a short term basis when a higher distribution attracts investors to this trust. But when the buffett has already ended, what comes after next? Any more growth? If not, then it is just a short term fever with no longer term positive effects of increasing distribution on a one-off basis.

Do not get me wrong. I am not saying rewarding unitholders is always wrong. But overdoing it just to boost up the unit price on a shorter term basis may not be as optimal compared to growing the trust on a long term basis providing sustainable increase in distributions over time. Unitholders will be happy only for a short while with a buffett treat as compared to a trust or REIT which really can sustain their growth in distributable income for a very long time to come giving out better and better treats (which may not be buffett standard but still relatively good standard treats).

In conclusion, AHT has done an impressive job with the divestment of the China hotel properties at good premium gains. Let's see how they use the divestment proceeds. I believe this is more important to watch for than the ongoing price movements of this trust. Of course, if the trust proves it can use the proceeds in a very good and sound way, then buying it at the current price now is good. If otherwise, even if one can supposedly get it cheap at less than P/B ratio of 1, think again is it really a great wonderful catch.

Dyodd

Ascendas Hospitality Trust (“A-HTRUST”) was listed in July 2012 as a stapled group comprising Ascendas Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trust (“A-HREIT”) and Ascendas Hospitality Business Trust (“A-HBT”), established with the principal investment strategy of investing, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate used predominantly for hospitality purposes, as well as real estate related assets in connection with the foregoing. The asset portfolio comprises 11 quality hotels with over 4,000 rooms geographically diversified across key cities in Australia, China, Japan and Singapore; and located close proximity to central business districts, business precincts, suburban centres, transportation nodes and iconic tourist landmarks. A-HTRUST is managed by Ascendas Hospitality Fund Management Pte. Ltd., the manager of A-HREIT, and Ascendas Hospitality Trust Management Pte. Ltd., the trustee-manager of A-HBT. A-HTRUST is sponsored by Ascendas Land International Pte Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ascendas Pte Ltd.

Trade Tariff

With the latest reaction from the Giant, market is going to be super volatile. I think it is ok to stay sideline till the sky is cleared again!

Quote:

 proposes $100 billion in additional tariffs on Chinese products.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/05/trump-asks-us-trade-representative-to-consider-100-billion-in-additional-tariffs-on-chinese-products.html

Dow futures  is down -351 points. 

I think is ultra important to select those stock counter that has solid fundamentals. 

Please do your own due diligence.


Solid investing counters

If profits were evaporating for a stock I am excited about, I will get even more excited because that also means the share price is coming down which offers me a chance to add to my position in this same exciting stock if the price is worth adding more. Then the next round when the price heads higher again, I will be multiplying the profits in this same stock on a larger position. It is great to hold an increasingly larger position in an exciting stock through time of which it's underlying business fundamentals are strong and growing fast whenever the share price is sensible to keep adding to one's position, the more exciting the share price at cheap valuation the better for an exciting business!

Nice investing wisdom! Any counter to share  @jeremyowtaip?

Try the following list. I think value investors also holds some of the stocks as indicated below.

1. Jardine Matheson Holdings
2. Haw Par Corporation
3. DBS
4. OCBC
5. Nordic
6. Riverstone Holdings
7. Top Glove Holdings
8. Micro Mechanics
9. Ascendas REIT
10. Parkway Life REIT
11. First REIT
12. CapitaCommercial Trust
13. Mapletree Commercial Tust
14. CapitaLand Mall Trust
15. Suntec REIT
16. Raffles Medical Group
17. UOI
18. Sheng Siong
19. Wilmar
20.Food Empire
21. Sunningdale

Of course, there are other stocks/ REITs which are also good. My selection here are the limited ones I have looked at before and they have already shown consistent performance track record so far and probably will be good to be invested for the long term until their fundamentals should change in future.

Of course, there are other stocks which could be vested for a particular period of time for asset value play and upturn in earnings such as selected boutique property stocks or certain property stocks like Wheelock properties whereby their assets carried on balance sheet maybe too conservatively quoted and hold locked hidden value. Or stocks in the turnaround in profitability in their respective industries or undergoing certain current developments which may favour their forward growth such as AEM Holdings, Yangzijiang in the shipbuilding industry, Wilmar in the commodities play should commoditiy prices head higher and return to previous peak and Keppel Corp in the O&G recovery play.

But, the bright spots I feel are still in selected HK and US listed stocks. I have found so many of them in my watchlist. And many of them really amazes me how much yearly growth they have achieved over the past decade which are somewhere 20% and above consistently for quite a number of those really good ones. They are in great expansion mode for these really high growth companies and their share prices are also in expansion mode where all of them have become multi-bagger stocks giving returns of more than 100% on their share prices over the past decade. If an investor can form a portfolio with all these growth stocks and have held them over the past decade through the ups and downs of prices, he or she would have been richly rewarded now.

A popular example is Apple Inc. which has become a 67-bagger stock over the past decade. Another example is Tencent Holdings which has become a 299-bagger stock over the past decade as it has done stock split(s) before. My conclusion is that the pasture is really greener outside if one knows how to pick the right stocks in the overseas markets.

It will be good for serious investor to start digging into the financial numbers and do their own homework before investing on any of these counters.

For one has to know the health of the company, profit level/margin, CAGR % increase for Total revenue , Gross profit and EPS for the past 5 years

. Whether the cash flow is good or not properly managed.Debts level is it ok. cash flow is sufficient to support the dividend payout etc.

Not a call to buy or sell.Trade/invest base on your own decision.

Don't know where it will end for Diw correction!. Doesn't matter. If market correction intensifies, I will use this golden opportunity to rebalance my portfolio.

If bear market should develop anytime soon, I will rebalance by taking some profits off the shares I will like to decrease allocation and increase the position in the shares I will like to reach my ideal weightage allocation during the price decline. It will be so much a breeze to do the rebalancing and repositioning when prices are going cheap.

Hope this little thought and ideas can make you Huat big big for year 2018 and beyond!

Haw Par - Haw Par Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and trades in pharmaceutical and healthcare products. The company’s Healthcare division principally manufactures and distributes topical analgesic products. This division offers ointments, soft, plasters, muscle rubs, liniments, oils, mosquito repellent sprays, mosquito repellent patches, mosquito repellent aerosols, arthritis rubs, joint rubs, neck and shoulder rubs, neck and shoulder rub boosts, back pain patches, ultra thin patches, lotions, and cooling patches under the Tiger Balm name; muscle gels, muscle rubs, and muscle sprays under the Tiger Balm ACTIVE name; and medicated oils and refreshers under the Kwan Loong name. Its Leisure division provides family and tourist oriented leisure alternatives through its owned and operated oceanarium, including Underwater World Pattaya located in Thailand. The company’s Property division owns and leases out various investment properties in the Asia region. This division’s investment property portfolio comprises 45,399 square meters of commercial and industrial space in Singapore and Malaysia. The company’s Investment division invests primarily in quoted and unquoted securities in Asia region. Haw Par Corporation Limited also provides management support services; and leisure-related goods and services, as well as invests in properties and securities. The company distributes its products in the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Australasia, and Europe. Haw Par Corporation Limited was formerly known as Haw Par Brothers International Limited and changed its name to Haw Par Corporation Limited in 1997. The company was incorporated in 1969 and is based in Singapore.

Riverstone - Riverstone Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes cleanroom and healthcare gloves under the RS brand. It also produces cleanroom finger cots, packaging bags, face masks, and wipers; and other consumables, such as hair nets, static dissipative shoes, safety booties, shoe covers, ESD rubber bands, sticky mats and rollers, swab-polyester and microfibers, antistatic gloves, static dissipative shoes, cleanroom coveralls, and cleanroom papers. In addition, the company trades in latex products; and distributes cleanroom products. Further, Riverstone Holdings Limited offers healthcare products comprising white, blue, black, and accelerator nitrile exam gloves. Its products are used in the hard disk drive, semiconductor, and healthcare industries. The company exports its products primarily to the Americas, Asia, and Europe. Riverstone Holdings Limited was founded in 1989 and is based in Singapore.