Sunningdale Tech

Sunningdale Tech - From TA point if view, it is heading into bearish mode and oversold territories.

Immediate support is at $1.73/$1.69.

I am getting excited and see some opportunity is surfacing.

Not a call to buy or sell.

Please do your own due diligence.

I have looked through Sunningdale Tech and here are my thoughts on this tech company.

Sunningdale Tech is a leading Asian tooling, plastic injection moulding and precision assembly company. They are currently operating in four main business segments namely automotive, consumer/IT/environment, healthcare and tooling/mould fabrication. They currently have 19 manufacturing facilities spread across 9 countries and as their chairman mentioned, they continue to receive queries from both new and existing customers who recognise their ability to undertake projects on a global scale. So far so good, the background business profile seems to suggest they are a global player in their field.

The chairman in the FY16 annual report did raised a few challenges their businesses constantly face such as foreign exchange movements, rising labour cost, pricing pressure from customers, rising input costs, and structural reforms in China (which affects their China based businesses).

With these backdrop, let us look into their business performance so far over the past decade. First, we look into how their revenues have grown over the past decade. Revenues have grown by a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.52% over past decade.

Next, their operating profit has grown by a CAGR of 9.2% over the past decade.

Next, their profit attributable to shareholders has grown by a CAGR of 9.98% over the past decade.

Next, their diluted earnings per share (EPS) has grown by an impressive CAGR of 25.9% over the past decade.

This is a low profit margin company. Let's look at how the profit margins have changed a decade ago compared to now.

Operating profit margin = 4.6% (2007) vs 5.9% (2017)
Profit attributable to shareholders margin = 3.1% (2007) vs 4.3% (2017)

The various profit margins have improved over the past decade though they are generally still at low single digits. The operating profit, profit attributable to shareholders and diluted EPS have all grown faster than revenues. It seems that Sunningdale Tech have managed to keep the various operating expenses well controlled to achieve better operating efficiency. Indeed, the % of operating expenses (excluding finance cost) over revenues have decreased from 12.4% to 9.6% over the past decade. In 2017, operating expenses (excluding finance cost) only made up 9.6% of their revenue. They have been definitely doing well to reduce operating expenses while improving profit margins amidst a challenging business environment they operate in with pricing pressure from customers and rising input cost and labour cost over the past decade.

Now let's look some of the various metrics from their balance sheet and see how have they changed over the past decade.

Current ratio = 1.21 (2007) vs 1.74 (2017)
Quick ratio = 0.39 (2007) vs 0.39 (2017)
Debt to equity ratio = 0.29 (2007) vs 0.28 (2017)
Shareholder equity CAGR = 1.12%

This was a net net company (current assets > total liabilities) a decade ago and a decade later, it still maintains it's net net company status. The company has maintained similar leverage level taken a decade ago and now. It's balance sheet is strong as it has maintained it's net net status over the past decade. However, Sunningdale Tech did not grow it's shareholder equity at high CAGR thus not making their shareholders wealthier at a fast rate.

The returns on assets, returns on equity and returns on invested capital a decade ago were at low single digits of 2.36%, 3.75% and 3.62% respectively. However, the various returns have improved over the past decade and now returns on assets, returns on equity and returns on invested capital stand at 6.98%, 13.28% and 10.75% respectively. Clearly, the management has become more efficient over the past decade in producing better returns. The question now is can the management continue to improve their various returns any further or are these the best they can achieve? This is because the various returns though have improved over the past decade, have also remained stagnant around current levels for the past 3 years.

Next, we look at how their cashflows have grown. Operating cashflows have not grown much at all and remained at about similar levels now as compared to a decade ago. Free cashflows have decreased in their reported FY17 financial results as compared to a decade ago. I noticed the trend of their operating cashflows and free cashflows over the past decade can be quite volatile with some years having more operating cashflows and free cashflows while other years having lesser. Nevertheless, their free cashflows are still able to meet their dividends paid. One may need to watch their future cashflows carefully to make sure their cashflows can continue to grow even while over any single year, it may show volatile swings. If future cashflows do not grow anymore and even show a decreasing trend, then it could be a potential red flag to watch out for.

Nevertheless, Sunningdale Tech has strong balance sheet. But, we will also like to see that it can continue to receive increasing operating and free cashflows from it's businesses as it continues it's growth. Or else, the current assets carried on their balance sheet though looking impressive giving them a net net status and especially made up of a good amount of trade and other receivables, may start to make one worry whether there are any difficulties with collecting cash from these receivables.

Overall, I find Sunningdale Tech still an alright investment for consideration. But based on some of the above potential weak spots such as the weakness of it's cashflows being raised and operating in a constantly challenging environment, I will put it as an alright but not fantastic investment idea.

Valuation wise, if we assume the diluted EPS will continue to grow at a historical CAGR of 25.9% for next 7 years, the fair share price is $9.84. Wait a minute! This is insane! Sunningdale Tech is only trading at $2 now. At $2 now, the market is according a forward CAGR of 1.9% for the diluted EPS of Sunningdale Tech. Either the market is very intelligent or very stupid from what I can see. Perhaps from certain potential weak spots in the businesses such as the volatile cashflows and challenging operating environment as mentioned earlier, the market is discounting Sunningdale Tech.

I also noticed that the diluted EPS of Sunningdale was also volatile as well over the past decade with some years swinging into losses. The significant growth in the diluted EPS came in only from 2015 to 2017. Previous years had much lower diluted EPS registered. Thus, I think it is better to watch out whether Sunningdale Tech can continue to register stable growth in it's diluted EPS. As such, I think I will perhaps follow the market's assumption that Sunningdale Tech will grow it's diluted EPS at CAGR of 1.9% as a conservative measure and see the current traded price of $2 as my final conclusion of it's fair share price. Any upside will have to depend on how Sunningdale Tech can stably grow it's diluted EPS and cashflows over the next 7 years.

Thus, a fair share price of $2 is not too low an estimate (factoring in a margin of safety for the investor) in order to give the company time in future to see whether they can stabilise their growth going forward in these two areas of their diluted EPS and cashflows, minimising their volatilities, and even avoid any potential losses. If they can do that, their share price will certainly have much room to run higher.

NAV of $1.935 ,Rolling EPS is 16.6 cents, PE of 12 times. Dividend of 7.5 cents, Yield is 3.73%

Price/NAV 1.03 times.